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<blockquote data-quote="Lonely Tylenol" data-source="post: 1728171" data-attributes="member: 18549">Three doorsI've seen this one many times before (it's known as the Let's Make A Deal problem or the Monty Hall problem because that situation was a daily occurance on that particular game show hosted by that particular personality) and the explanation for the solution is actually kind of odd.[SPOILER]Long story short: When you choose from three doors, you have a 33.3% chance of picking the prize door.&nbsp; When one door is eliminated and you have a chance to pick a second time, you still have a 33.3% chance of success on the first door, because that was the probability when you picked it.&nbsp; But the chance of success for all doors must add up to 100% (or else there's a chance that no door has the prize).&nbsp; Since one door was eliminated that means that the chance of success for the unpicked door is 66.6% because 66.6% + 33.3% ~= 100%.So in every case, your best odds are to change to the other door.&nbsp; It actually doubles your chance of winning.&nbsp; It sounds kind of wacky, but it works.&nbsp; <a href="http://www.remote.org/frederik/projects/ziege/loesung.html" target="_blank">Here's some more info on the problem.</a> There are also websites with applets that will run the game for you to show empirically that the numbers work out this way.[/SPOILER]</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Lonely Tylenol, post: 1728171, member: 18549"] [b]Three doors[/b] I've seen this one many times before (it's known as the Let's Make A Deal problem or the Monty Hall problem because that situation was a daily occurance on that particular game show hosted by that particular personality) and the explanation for the solution is actually kind of odd. [SPOILER]Long story short: When you choose from three doors, you have a 33.3% chance of picking the prize door. When one door is eliminated and you have a chance to pick a second time, you still have a 33.3% chance of success on the first door, because that was the probability when you picked it. But the chance of success for all doors must add up to 100% (or else there's a chance that no door has the prize). Since one door was eliminated that means that the chance of success for the unpicked door is 66.6% because 66.6% + 33.3% ~= 100%. So in every case, your best odds are to change to the other door. It actually doubles your chance of winning. It sounds kind of wacky, but it works. [URL=http://www.remote.org/frederik/projects/ziege/loesung.html]Here's some more info on the problem.[/URL] There are also websites with applets that will run the game for you to show empirically that the numbers work out this way.[/SPOILER] [/QUOTE]

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