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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Asmor" data-source="post: 1728308" data-attributes="member: 1154">I believe that to be flawed reasoning. Here's why: [spoiler]If the host always, no matter what, opens a wrong door after the guest chooses and then gives the guest the chance to change his mind, then the first guess is entirely irrelevent. It is, for all intents and purposes, a choice between 2 doors, not 3, as you can be 100% sure that one of the wrong choices will be eliminated before you have to make your final decision. It is therefore a simple 50/50 chance.Of course, I could be wrong. That's just how I see it. I hate to admit it, the mathematical proof does seem to make sense, but I don't have a strong enough background in whatever area of mathematics is relevent to the problem to decide how accurate the proof is, and it's a simple matter to make a false proof that will pass muster to the untrained eye.[/spoiler]</blockquote>