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<blockquote data-quote="WizarDru" data-source="post: 5378399" data-attributes="member: 151"><p>It was a little hard to follow, but I think I got the gist of it. I think what I got from it was the following (and correct if I've misunderstood):</p><p></p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">D&D was once a fad and fads are good, due to the burst of revenue.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Fads fade, sometimes very quickly. The only way to continue a fad is to reinvent it.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Most books publish, have a big 'fad' start then sales fade over time</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Boardgames have a fad publishing schedule, where each game 'reboots' the fad</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">D&D should switch to a publishing model similar to a boardgame, using box sets and the like to make packages with fad burstiness</li> </ol><p></p><p>Well, Gamma World will certainly show if that's a successful model or not, since that's exactly the approach they're taking with it. I personally don't think that will work for large sales, but might make sustainable lower tier numbers. But I don't know if it will bring in new gamers or not and I have no idea of hardcore gamers will give it a chance. Most of the reviews I've read for it say that people bought it AFTER playing it; arguably the best way to expand the hobby.</p><p></p><p>A large problem with discussions like these is that we have no real hard data or access to sales numbers. Everyone knows WotC is the 800 lb. gorilla, due to a number of data points (presence in stores, advertising/sponsorship budgets, market penetration, large-scale anecdotal evidence from both gamers and small retailers, etc.). But as was evidenced in other threads, we really don't know how the overall industry functions.</p><p></p><p>I also think you're wrong about boardgames; as a niche market, most Euro-game producers are very, very small and work with small margins. A company like Mayfair, FFG or makes money, but they're not in WotC's class. I'm not sure that attempting to emulate them too closely is a winning strategy. For last year, board games (all of them, including Monopoly type games) sold around some $700 million in sales. As recently as 2007, Hasbro controlled 51%+ of the board game market. It's unclear if those numbers include D&D and Magic. It's been put forth that only about $50-100 million of that figure is attributable to hobby games (again, it's unclear where D&D and Magic fall in this).</p><p></p><p>I would hazard that the most popular FFG release is dwarfed, sales-wise, by the basic Apples-to-Apples set or a good chunk of GameWright's output, which can be found at Borders, Barnes & Nobles and Target, usually in highly visible locations.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="WizarDru, post: 5378399, member: 151"] It was a little hard to follow, but I think I got the gist of it. I think what I got from it was the following (and correct if I've misunderstood): [LIST=1] [*]D&D was once a fad and fads are good, due to the burst of revenue. [*]Fads fade, sometimes very quickly. The only way to continue a fad is to reinvent it. [*]Most books publish, have a big 'fad' start then sales fade over time [*]Boardgames have a fad publishing schedule, where each game 'reboots' the fad [*]D&D should switch to a publishing model similar to a boardgame, using box sets and the like to make packages with fad burstiness [/LIST] Well, Gamma World will certainly show if that's a successful model or not, since that's exactly the approach they're taking with it. I personally don't think that will work for large sales, but might make sustainable lower tier numbers. But I don't know if it will bring in new gamers or not and I have no idea of hardcore gamers will give it a chance. Most of the reviews I've read for it say that people bought it AFTER playing it; arguably the best way to expand the hobby. A large problem with discussions like these is that we have no real hard data or access to sales numbers. Everyone knows WotC is the 800 lb. gorilla, due to a number of data points (presence in stores, advertising/sponsorship budgets, market penetration, large-scale anecdotal evidence from both gamers and small retailers, etc.). But as was evidenced in other threads, we really don't know how the overall industry functions. I also think you're wrong about boardgames; as a niche market, most Euro-game producers are very, very small and work with small margins. A company like Mayfair, FFG or makes money, but they're not in WotC's class. I'm not sure that attempting to emulate them too closely is a winning strategy. For last year, board games (all of them, including Monopoly type games) sold around some $700 million in sales. As recently as 2007, Hasbro controlled 51%+ of the board game market. It's unclear if those numbers include D&D and Magic. It's been put forth that only about $50-100 million of that figure is attributable to hobby games (again, it's unclear where D&D and Magic fall in this). I would hazard that the most popular FFG release is dwarfed, sales-wise, by the basic Apples-to-Apples set or a good chunk of GameWright's output, which can be found at Borders, Barnes & Nobles and Target, usually in highly visible locations. [/QUOTE]
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