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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Sword of Spirit" data-source="post: 9666970" data-attributes="member: 6677017">Yes, mostly. I'm probably not explaining it very well.You always put in the average damage of the damage source, and the chance of taking damage affects how much damage is mathematically assumed to be taken by the target. So if the damage output is 100, and the attack bonus translates to a 65% chance in their calculations, then the effective damage taken by the target (which we don't see, because the chart is doing the math for us so we don't have to calculate it) would be 65. That's why the table includes Damage + Attack Bonus, because it multiplies it by the intended percentage to get the actual expected result. (That expected result is, presumably, compared to what they consider the party's effective hit points are to determine how much damage the monster can deal over those 3 rounds it's in action.)So why it breaks down when they don't take things like damage on success into account, is because the formulas are designed to figure out the actual average damage taken by the PCs, which would include damage on success.</blockquote>