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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Ondath" data-source="post: 9846521" data-attributes="member: 7031770">Does accuracy really rise? When I look at some reconstructions of existing monster math (like Blog of Holding's Monster Manual on a card), it seems like monsters' AC increase is in almost perfect lockstep with PC's ability score and proficiency bonus increases. [ATTACH=full]428142[/ATTACH]I don't have the exact calculations I ran before in front of me, but what I remember was that the to-hit probability for PCs was almost always 65%, only going up to 70% in some cases and then going back down the next level. This also seems in-line with the 2014 design team's explanation that they did not factor in magic items to encounter balance, so they're supposed to be pure bonuses that you can do without.What I'm more interested in is reverse-engineering an "expected average PC health/DPR" chart based on these numbers, and I think we could do that if we knew a bit more about the designers' core assumptions about how an adventuring day was going to go. [USER=6677017]@Sword of Spirit[/USER] says that monsters have baseline hit probability of 50%, and that makes sense to me (because people perceive equivalent losses worse than equivalent gains, monsters should probably hit less often than players do in order for a fight to "feel fair"). We could then multiply a monster's DPR and the number of rounds it's expected to survive with the monster's to-hit probability to calculate the amount of damage, then do this for a whole adventuring day's worth of encounters, and theoretically we'd get the amount of damage the PCs are expected to suffer from during an average adventuring day. And that might give us what the end of a full day of average encounters is supposed to feel like. Should all of the PCs be 1 HP away from death? Do they need to take a total amount of damage that would require them to spend half of their Hit Dice during Short Rests inbetween? All of their Hit Dice? If we know the amount of total HP monsters have throughout an adventuring day as well as the amount of damage an ideal-type "limited-use feature" for a PC is supposed to deal, can we calculate how many of their limited-use features are they expected to expend?I'm honestly not fully equipped to do all of these calculations by myself, and the TTRPG people around me aren't so mathematically-minded either, so I feel like I'm ruminating by myself when I think about this stuff. So apologies if my post feels too convoluted or too much, I'm just really excited that other people are running the math in similar ways to the 5E chassis!</blockquote>

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