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Tink-Tink-Boom vs. the Death Spiral: The Damage Mechanic in RPGs
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<blockquote data-quote="aramis erak" data-source="post: 7756798" data-attributes="member: 6779310"><p>People also often don't do proper analysis of the data. For example, the Police shootings data. The 1990 or 1991 report by DoJ (My roommate at the time ordered a copy) was analyzed and found that 1-shot stops are often not 1-shot kills, and a significant fraction of 1-shot kills are not part of a successful stop of a violent offender... (As in, they died from a single shot, but weren't stopped from fleeing and/or continuing to fight. Some died in custody, some died on the run.)</p><p></p><p>It even analyzed for accuracy where the suspect had been hit and returned fire... there was a clear "impairment of accuracy"... as in, suspects who had been shot were less likely to hit police. When the chances of being hit in a firefight drop from around 20% to 15%, that "5% impairment" is pretty valuable. </p><p></p><p>It's worth noting that police engagements are heavily biased towards under 5m; almost all officer involved shootings not being part of CRIT/SWAT/TRU are under 15m. Officers are almost universally trained to aim center of mass, as that's the best chance of a 1-shot stop. Head shots are harder, and often result in one-shot kills, but not always a 1-shot stop. (Part of that was blamed upon officers tending to be slow to call for an ambulance for someone they shot in the head. One can hypothesize on that, but the document made no conclusions on why they were slow to call. Another part of that is that many of the 70's and 80's shootings involved folks on PCP; they can often keep coming with wounds that are going to kill them in minutes. Think "Zombie-movie" levels of "feel no pain".)</p><p></p><p>The average number of rounds needed to stop someone was about 2 and change into them; the average needed to kill someone was only 3 and change.... but with police, trained tactical shooters, averaging only slightly better than 30% hit rates... 3 hits is more than a revolver can deliver. The report was instrumental in Anchorage Police switching to semi-auto weapons with high capacity magazines. </p><p></p><p>Also note: in some states, police using suppressive fire is forbidden - and many departments will punish officers if the intent was suppression against anyone other than a spree killer; it's extremely risky in terms of non-visible uninvolved persons. Now, not a few violent offenders are happy to engage in suppression fire.... </p><p></p><p>Oh, and some more current data on lethality - <a href="https://www.buckeyefirearms.org/alternate-look-handgun-stopping-power" target="_blank">https://www.buckeyefirearms.org/alternate-look-handgun-stopping-power</a></p><p>Interesting read. Not as in depth, but note the "% who were not incapacitated" numbers...</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="aramis erak, post: 7756798, member: 6779310"] People also often don't do proper analysis of the data. For example, the Police shootings data. The 1990 or 1991 report by DoJ (My roommate at the time ordered a copy) was analyzed and found that 1-shot stops are often not 1-shot kills, and a significant fraction of 1-shot kills are not part of a successful stop of a violent offender... (As in, they died from a single shot, but weren't stopped from fleeing and/or continuing to fight. Some died in custody, some died on the run.) It even analyzed for accuracy where the suspect had been hit and returned fire... there was a clear "impairment of accuracy"... as in, suspects who had been shot were less likely to hit police. When the chances of being hit in a firefight drop from around 20% to 15%, that "5% impairment" is pretty valuable. It's worth noting that police engagements are heavily biased towards under 5m; almost all officer involved shootings not being part of CRIT/SWAT/TRU are under 15m. Officers are almost universally trained to aim center of mass, as that's the best chance of a 1-shot stop. Head shots are harder, and often result in one-shot kills, but not always a 1-shot stop. (Part of that was blamed upon officers tending to be slow to call for an ambulance for someone they shot in the head. One can hypothesize on that, but the document made no conclusions on why they were slow to call. Another part of that is that many of the 70's and 80's shootings involved folks on PCP; they can often keep coming with wounds that are going to kill them in minutes. Think "Zombie-movie" levels of "feel no pain".) The average number of rounds needed to stop someone was about 2 and change into them; the average needed to kill someone was only 3 and change.... but with police, trained tactical shooters, averaging only slightly better than 30% hit rates... 3 hits is more than a revolver can deliver. The report was instrumental in Anchorage Police switching to semi-auto weapons with high capacity magazines. Also note: in some states, police using suppressive fire is forbidden - and many departments will punish officers if the intent was suppression against anyone other than a spree killer; it's extremely risky in terms of non-visible uninvolved persons. Now, not a few violent offenders are happy to engage in suppression fire.... Oh, and some more current data on lethality - [url]https://www.buckeyefirearms.org/alternate-look-handgun-stopping-power[/url] Interesting read. Not as in depth, but note the "% who were not incapacitated" numbers... [/QUOTE]
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