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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Ovinomancer" data-source="post: 7268895" data-attributes="member: 16814">To the first, my point is that the two methods are identical:  both have niave choosers picking 4 out of 5 options looking for 1 success.  The only difference between them is the information known by someone not choosing.  Look at it this way:  let's say you're on a ganesh where you have to pick from one of 5 doors, behind one of which is a car and behind the other 4 are goats.  The host doesn't know which door has what behind it, and, obviously, you don't.  Your odds of not picking the correct door are 20%.  Now, let's say the producer of the gameshow knows what's what.  Did your odds change?Unless there's a way for you to gain information between choices, your odds are fixed no matter who else knows what. To your second point, and to [MENTION=71699]vonklaude[/MENTION]'s question, if you did gain information, the odds do change.  To Klaus' specific question, revealing one false site in this problem guarantees success, because you now have 4 guesses from 4 possibilities.  To make the Monty Haul problem work with a chance of failure, you have to have at least 2 fewer choices than possibilities.But, yes, if you make a choice of the five does, but before it's opened one of the other doors is opened to show a goat and then you're allowed to change your pick, you're better off picking a new door.  This is because your choice of picking the correct door at first is 20%.  Once Monty opens the other door to show a goat (and he has to show you a goat), the odds you picked the right door are still 20%, because you picked without the information.  However, if you change your pick, the odds you picked a correct new door are now 25%, because you're picking from 4 doors instead of 5.To the problem of the OP, though, I'm having trouble coming up with a way to provide the information after a choice for the next site is made but with enough time to change the choice.</blockquote>

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