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Message: <blockquote data-quote="clearstream" data-source="post: 7267492" data-attributes="member: 71699">@<a href="http://www.enworld.org/forum/member.php?u=55582" target="_blank">Treantmonklvl20</a> Here is the first-pass PDF for their sustain rates - Bladesinger, Cleric and Barbarian. This is of course only indicative although I would resist a mindset that demands every possible nuance to be included in the PDF, while being content to judge based on single-pristine-encounter estimates.[ATTACH]90464[/ATTACH]The value under E is the proportion of days of that type that will have that outcome. It's easiest to visualise a set of 10 such days, and understand that by the end of that set, those outcomes will have been experienced that many times. The value under "sustain" is the point at which that character has consumed all available resources and is dying. Look at the "damage" column to see how frequently that point is reached. There are two PDFs for each character, the second is to show the critical damage, which should be added to the first.<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Bladesinger is casting 3 Shields so we need to step back up the E column to find the actual damage. As you can see, Bladesinger takes 12 or less damage about 76% of the time, and 45 or less damage about 90% of the time. Remembering that Bladesinger is Shielding attacks that would hit, they end up keeping concentration at the 0 or 1 hit rate.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Cleric is dying about 98% of the time. The "conc" column shows their probability of maintaining concentration with that many hits, but it isn't quite right yet as those hits are spread over 4 encounters: my guess is Cleric is losing concentration about half the time on a per encounter basis.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Barbarian is shown also. As you can see, even with resistance, due to Reckless Attacking Barbarian dies about 100% of the time.</li> </ul>At this point the estimate assumes one foe makes a Multiattack on the character every round of every encounter. That's too high so I need to look at our other assumptions and bring this into alignment. Illustratively, if we reduce attacks back to happen at half the rate, Barbarian who chooses always-Reckless is still dying on 80% of such days.What I will do next is converge the PDF and damage-over-day assumptions to estimate factors such as how many attacks back Barbarian negates by killing foe before they can make them. It might then still be necessary to assume Barbarian does not choose always-Reckless. Obviously foe's attacks back are irrelevant to Bladesinger at this CR range: they'd need much stronger melee opponents before they'd feel pressed. I'm not sure how to help Cleric: ideas are welcome.</blockquote>

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