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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Guest 6801328" data-source="post: 7996559">Ok, converted to analytical.  Makes a lot more sense.Note: somebody check my logic on calculating criticals.  It occurred to me that computing the chance as 1 - (chance of not critical)^3 is true across all cases, but not in individual cases.  For example, if you need to roll a natural 20 to hit, 100% of your hits will be criticals, Since you'll only hit 5% of the time, that means you'll do 10% avg weapon damage.  Note that multiplying 5% weapon damage * 1.05 does not give you the correct value.So I don't want to just take 1 - (19/20)^3 and increase all damage by that amount, against all ACs.Instead, what I did was this:<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Let's say you need to roll a 12 to hit.  That is, 12 + your attack bonus == the target ac.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">That means there are 9 possible die results that would hit, 8 of which would be a non-crit.  So normally 8/9 times you hit you won't crit.  (Or 7/9 with Champion 3 dip.)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">But this is trivantage, so it's really (8/9)^3 times you won't crit.  Or 1 - (8/9)^3 you will crit.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">So after I compute average damage from dice, I increase it by that amount.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Then I add damage modifiers (like dex bonus, or dueling, or sharpshooter damage), then multiply that total by the chance you have to hit, which in this example is 1 - (11/20)^3.</li> </ul>Does that make sense?EDIT: Or.....is this all just arithmetically identical to:<ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Compute expected crit damage as 1 - (19/20)^3 times average damage, but hold that number for now...</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Multiply average damage by chance of hitting</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Add number from step 1 back in</li> </ol>I think it is.</blockquote>

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