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Message: <blockquote data-quote="UngeheuerLich" data-source="post: 9204073" data-attributes="member: 59057">Most often it is close enough or obvious.But if it is not totally clear, it risk vs revard is more important than 1 or 2 points of average damage in the long run.No. If failing means you die, then even with the better theoretical odds, its not worth the risk of failing completely.(This is what my example was about. This is what independent chip model is about. This is what is important when trading stocks. Average gain vs volatility.Most often one is not a trap. Most often both decisions are viable. In hindsight one might regret a decision. But that is hindsight.Even in chess there are openings that are risky (real gambits) that have a high win probability. But then, if the opponent knows the counter, you play from behind.In combat, your very tightly calculated odds and gains might easily be foiled with a sudden shield spell. When you wish you had chosen the more conservative route.But then, I know where I learnt all that. And I don't know where your expertise comes from. So maybe I am wrong and you are right and have learned a way to calculate tighter forecast intervalls for very small samlpes than I am not aware of.</blockquote>