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(Un)Lucky with the dice - How can it happen?
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<blockquote data-quote="Guilt Puppy" data-source="post: 767259" data-attributes="member: 6521"><p>I think we've all run into this. One of my players has a tank Dwarf who, can't roll above of a ten in combat. Not during the last session. During the whole campaign. He manages to get along, seeing as there's a variety of things he can hit with a low roll. But he sure never uses Power Attack.</p><p></p><p>I, on the other hand... I have the dreaded futon/clear d20/little wooden bowl combo going on. It adds +1 to the CR of any encounter. My players expect a critical every session. I worry they might suspect I cheat against them: In reality, of course, it's only ever the opposite.</p><p></p><p>Of course, none of this should be surprising. Truly random numbers do not produce predictable results, and "an even distribution" is a predictabe results. This isn't to say probabilities don't come into play (anything about 10d6 I'll usually take average, as in my experience it rarely deviates by more than three or four), but remember: They don't govern the dice, the dice govern them.</p><p></p><p>This is why I don't like electronic dice-rollers. They never seem to mimic the "feel" to me of real dice, even if they do satisfy the statistical requirements.</p><p></p><p>Also worth noting: Don't discount the human ability to discern patterns, even in chaos. The little clumps of similarity which are inevitable in randomness can appear quite strange -- you can easily pick out a pattern, and isn't random supposed to mean there is no pattern?</p><p></p><p>In short, I wouldn't be amazed if somebody rolled 100 consecutive 20s. If they did so after <em>saying</em> they would, maybe -- but no more than if they'd picked out any other exact sequence of 100. Probabilities don't mean much in hindsight -- if something randomly happened, then the odds are 100% that it happened, and 0% that it didn't (+-5% error in reporting.) </p><p></p><p>Something else to take into cons</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Guilt Puppy, post: 767259, member: 6521"] I think we've all run into this. One of my players has a tank Dwarf who, can't roll above of a ten in combat. Not during the last session. During the whole campaign. He manages to get along, seeing as there's a variety of things he can hit with a low roll. But he sure never uses Power Attack. I, on the other hand... I have the dreaded futon/clear d20/little wooden bowl combo going on. It adds +1 to the CR of any encounter. My players expect a critical every session. I worry they might suspect I cheat against them: In reality, of course, it's only ever the opposite. Of course, none of this should be surprising. Truly random numbers do not produce predictable results, and "an even distribution" is a predictabe results. This isn't to say probabilities don't come into play (anything about 10d6 I'll usually take average, as in my experience it rarely deviates by more than three or four), but remember: They don't govern the dice, the dice govern them. This is why I don't like electronic dice-rollers. They never seem to mimic the "feel" to me of real dice, even if they do satisfy the statistical requirements. Also worth noting: Don't discount the human ability to discern patterns, even in chaos. The little clumps of similarity which are inevitable in randomness can appear quite strange -- you can easily pick out a pattern, and isn't random supposed to mean there is no pattern? In short, I wouldn't be amazed if somebody rolled 100 consecutive 20s. If they did so after [i]saying[/i] they would, maybe -- but no more than if they'd picked out any other exact sequence of 100. Probabilities don't mean much in hindsight -- if something randomly happened, then the odds are 100% that it happened, and 0% that it didn't (+-5% error in reporting.) Something else to take into cons [/QUOTE]
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(Un)Lucky with the dice - How can it happen?
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