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(Un)Lucky with the dice - How can it happen?
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<blockquote data-quote="Rel" data-source="post: 768646" data-attributes="member: 99"><p>I think this is an interesting topic, not so much from the standpoint of what the dice actually do, but from how those results are interpreted by different players. Personally, I'm not a very superstitious guy. And yet, I often find that I behave in a superstitious manner when it comes to dice. I think this is largely motivated by a frustrated inability to actually DO something about something that I clearly have no control over.</p><p></p><p>As an example, on Tuesday we were playing and it was one of the more combat intensive sessions that we've had for a while. I was making lots of rolls. After a few "average" rolls early on and one really nice critical hit with a dart that took out an enemy Sorcerer in one hit, the dice "turned on me". I rolled three 3's in a row from the primary d20 that I use (a big speckled one that is an inch and a half across). Objectively I knew that this sort of thing happens all the time statistically but it was still frustrating. Feeling powerless, I exerted my human will power in a fruitless gesture: I switched to a different die.</p><p></p><p>On my next roll, my new die mockingly rolled a 4 followed by another 4. Again, I ascribe no mystical significance to this from an intellectual standpoint, but the pattern emerging was not encouraging (3,3,3,4,4). Again, I changed dice.</p><p></p><p>My next roll on the third die of the evening was...you guessed it, a 5. My reptilian hind-brain ordered me to hurl this die across the room into the brick fireplace. It appears that I've matured a bit over the years however and I restrained myself pending the next roll. Next roll was a 17. Among the next several rolls were another 17, an 18, a couple of 15's and a 20. Mixed in that batch were a few lower rolls (nothing below about an 8 if I recall). I stuck with that die for the rest of the combat.</p><p></p><p>The point of my little anecdote is that I think we often do things that don't actually change anything because there is nothing we can do that will really change our circumstances. Perhaps if I'd stuck with my original die after the third 3, my next 3 rolls would have all been 20's. Perhaps not. The underlying point is that if doing something "useless" actually makes me feel a little bit better because I THINK I'm improving my odds (even when I'm not and deep down I know it) then shouldn't it be considered a "Good Thing"?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Rel, post: 768646, member: 99"] I think this is an interesting topic, not so much from the standpoint of what the dice actually do, but from how those results are interpreted by different players. Personally, I'm not a very superstitious guy. And yet, I often find that I behave in a superstitious manner when it comes to dice. I think this is largely motivated by a frustrated inability to actually DO something about something that I clearly have no control over. As an example, on Tuesday we were playing and it was one of the more combat intensive sessions that we've had for a while. I was making lots of rolls. After a few "average" rolls early on and one really nice critical hit with a dart that took out an enemy Sorcerer in one hit, the dice "turned on me". I rolled three 3's in a row from the primary d20 that I use (a big speckled one that is an inch and a half across). Objectively I knew that this sort of thing happens all the time statistically but it was still frustrating. Feeling powerless, I exerted my human will power in a fruitless gesture: I switched to a different die. On my next roll, my new die mockingly rolled a 4 followed by another 4. Again, I ascribe no mystical significance to this from an intellectual standpoint, but the pattern emerging was not encouraging (3,3,3,4,4). Again, I changed dice. My next roll on the third die of the evening was...you guessed it, a 5. My reptilian hind-brain ordered me to hurl this die across the room into the brick fireplace. It appears that I've matured a bit over the years however and I restrained myself pending the next roll. Next roll was a 17. Among the next several rolls were another 17, an 18, a couple of 15's and a 20. Mixed in that batch were a few lower rolls (nothing below about an 8 if I recall). I stuck with that die for the rest of the combat. The point of my little anecdote is that I think we often do things that don't actually change anything because there is nothing we can do that will really change our circumstances. Perhaps if I'd stuck with my original die after the third 3, my next 3 rolls would have all been 20's. Perhaps not. The underlying point is that if doing something "useless" actually makes me feel a little bit better because I THINK I'm improving my odds (even when I'm not and deep down I know it) then shouldn't it be considered a "Good Thing"? [/QUOTE]
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