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What are the odds? - Stat geeks help!
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<blockquote data-quote="Majere" data-source="post: 1858834" data-attributes="member: 13916"><p>Here are my answers (with working !)</p><p></p><p>1) What are the odds of me rolling a single natural 20 out of the four dice I roll for a normal round?</p><p>P(Not rolling a 20 if I roll 1d20)= 19/20</p><p>P(Not 4d20 not rolling a 20) = (19/20)^4 = 0.81450625</p><p>P(At least 1 success) = 1- P(0 sucessess)= 0.18549</p><p></p><p>2) What are the odds of rolling a single natural 20 out of the six dice I roll for a full-round action?</p><p>P(0 sucessess) = (19/20)^6= 0.73509</p><p>P(At leas 1 success) = 1-P(n=0(6))= 0.2648908</p><p></p><p>3) What are the odds of rolling 4 natural 20's out of the 4 dice I roll for a normal round?</p><p>P(n=4(6))= (1/20)^5 = 1 in 160000</p><p></p><p>4) What are the odds of rolling 6 natural 20's out of the 6 dice I roll for a full-round action?</p><p>P(n=6(6)) = (1/20)^6= 1 in 64x10^6</p><p></p><p>Crit range now 18-20</p><p>P(0(1)) =17/20</p><p></p><p>1) P(n>0(4))= 1-P(n=0(6))= 0.47799</p><p>2) P(n>0(6))= 1-P(n=0(6))= 0.622850</p><p>3) P(n=4(4))=(3/20)^4 = 81 in 160000 = 0.00050625</p><p>4) P(n=6(6))=(3/20)^6 = 729 in 64million= 0.00001139</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Majere, post: 1858834, member: 13916"] Here are my answers (with working !) 1) What are the odds of me rolling a single natural 20 out of the four dice I roll for a normal round? P(Not rolling a 20 if I roll 1d20)= 19/20 P(Not 4d20 not rolling a 20) = (19/20)^4 = 0.81450625 P(At least 1 success) = 1- P(0 sucessess)= 0.18549 2) What are the odds of rolling a single natural 20 out of the six dice I roll for a full-round action? P(0 sucessess) = (19/20)^6= 0.73509 P(At leas 1 success) = 1-P(n=0(6))= 0.2648908 3) What are the odds of rolling 4 natural 20's out of the 4 dice I roll for a normal round? P(n=4(6))= (1/20)^5 = 1 in 160000 4) What are the odds of rolling 6 natural 20's out of the 6 dice I roll for a full-round action? P(n=6(6)) = (1/20)^6= 1 in 64x10^6 Crit range now 18-20 P(0(1)) =17/20 1) P(n>0(4))= 1-P(n=0(6))= 0.47799 2) P(n>0(6))= 1-P(n=0(6))= 0.622850 3) P(n=4(4))=(3/20)^4 = 81 in 160000 = 0.00050625 4) P(n=6(6))=(3/20)^6 = 729 in 64million= 0.00001139 [/QUOTE]
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