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<blockquote data-quote="ggroy" data-source="post: 5115903" data-attributes="member: 83805">If one wants to avoid having more than 3 rounds of the players missing their attacks on average, the players' probabilities to-hit should be in the range 30% to 50%.&nbsp; This range would correspond to approximately rolling greater than or equal to 11, 12, 13, 14 or 15 on a raw d20 (with the bonuses and other mods/adjustments backed out).On average, the number of attacks it takes to hit a monster is 1/p.&nbsp; (p is the probability of a player hitting a monster).&nbsp; So for a to-hit probability of p=30%, the average number of attacks it takes to hit a monster is about 3.&nbsp; For a to-hit probability of p=50%, the average number of attacks it takes to hit a monster is 2.For to-hit probabilities lower than 30%, the average number of attacks it takes to hit are:p=25% -&gt; 4 attacks to hitp=20% -&gt; 5 attacks to hitp=15% -&gt; 6 attacks to hitp=10% -&gt; 10 attacks to hitp=5% -&gt; 20 attacks to hitAs one may have experienced, requiring a minimum raw d20 roll of 17, 18, 19, or 20 for a hit can be very frustrating.In practice, I'll adjust the AC and other defenses of harder monsters such that the players have at least a 25% probability to hit.&nbsp; Anything lower than 25% to hit, can make things very frustrating for the players.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="ggroy, post: 5115903, member: 83805"] If one wants to avoid having more than 3 rounds of the players missing their attacks on average, the players' probabilities to-hit should be in the range 30% to 50%. This range would correspond to approximately rolling greater than or equal to 11, 12, 13, 14 or 15 on a raw d20 (with the bonuses and other mods/adjustments backed out). On average, the number of attacks it takes to hit a monster is 1/p. (p is the probability of a player hitting a monster). So for a to-hit probability of p=30%, the average number of attacks it takes to hit a monster is about 3. For a to-hit probability of p=50%, the average number of attacks it takes to hit a monster is 2. For to-hit probabilities lower than 30%, the average number of attacks it takes to hit are: p=25% -> 4 attacks to hit p=20% -> 5 attacks to hit p=15% -> 6 attacks to hit p=10% -> 10 attacks to hit p=5% -> 20 attacks to hit As one may have experienced, requiring a minimum raw d20 roll of 17, 18, 19, or 20 for a hit can be very frustrating. In practice, I'll adjust the AC and other defenses of harder monsters such that the players have at least a 25% probability to hit. Anything lower than 25% to hit, can make things very frustrating for the players. [/QUOTE]

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