Reply to thread

Message: <blockquote data-quote="Jer" data-source="post: 8911748" data-attributes="member: 19857">(Cutting out the potshot at 4e there because 4e's launch was actually quite good - it took a while before they realized that 4e sales were on the same declining trend that 3e's had been towards the end of 3e and that the 4e launch wasn't doing what they needed it to because they hadn't solved the fundamental problem of the monthly supplement publishing model).The worst that happens for D&D in the immediate term is that their bungling causes its growth to stop or even reverse. D&D stays the biggest RPG in the US because, well, it's D&D. So it can actually take a big dip in people leaving the game and still remain the top dog in the RPG world for a long time.However - D&D isn't a brand that is being ignored anymore. D&D is central to Hasbro's plans for the future. A shrinking or even just flattening D&D is counter to Hasbro's future strategies. So panic would likely set in at Wizards HQ, lots of people who don't deserve to lose their jobs will be fired, and people who do deserve to lose their jobs will quietly exit the company for other companies who like the moxie of their poor decision making skills, likely before the shinola hits the fan. Possibly things in development get cancelled - like their VTT. Layoffs for D&D Beyond probably also happen if they can't point to growth, even if it's flat and not actually shrinking.Activist investors take this as more evidence that Hasbro is mismanaged and work towards a shareholder revolt. Depending on how bad the press is and how bad the drop in growth is they might succeed this time. Hasbro and Wizards get separated back into different companies and the activists put someone at the head of Wizards who they think will be better at extracting money from the pockets of Magic the Gathering and D&D players than the current crop.Magic is easier to monetize than D&D so the efforts get put there. Best case D&D gets a "placeholder" edition placed under an open gaming license and we get a repeat of the post-5e rollout where Wizards didn't expect the game to do anything but remain a viable brand for other products. Worst case is D&D gets put into the Wizards equivalent of the "Disney Vault" and they stop doing anything with it at all, waiting for a time when they think the brand is viable again. It sits in there for a decade or so before someone thinks they might be able to do something with it for the 201x nostalgia market.</blockquote>

Verification