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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Plane Sailing" data-source="post: 236495" data-attributes="member: 114">I must just say that the section in S&F where they say "we do the maths for you" is so bad it just isn't funny. It is utterly deplorable that they can think they can get away with getting probability so wrong.(I'll post the actual maths later, since it is at home and I don't want to do all the leg work here again... but the thing to remember is that when calculating the flurry you CANNOT just add chances together - when there are two attacks you need to calculate the chance that both attacks hit, the chance that both attacks miss and the remainder is the chance that just one hits. For a simplistic example, with a 1st level Monk and a 10 Str; if the flurry DC was 11 (50% chance for each blow to hit), the chance of both blows hitting is 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25. The chance of both blows missing is 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25. Thus, to find the probability of just either one of the blows landing it is "what is left".i.e.25% both hit (say 2d6 damage)50% one hits (say 1d6 damage)25% both miss.Average damage expectation = .25x7 + .5x3.5 = 1.75 + 1.75 = 3.5If that same monk just took one attack, his chance of hitting is 9 (60% for 1d6) and chance of missing 40%.Average damage expectation = .6x3.5 = 2.1If the AC was 16, so the Flurry needs 18 to hitboth hit on .15 x .15 = 0.0225both miss on .85 x .85 = 0.7225thus one hits on 1 - (0.7225 + 0.0225) = 0.255Average damage = 0.0225 x 7 +0.255x3.5 = 0.1575 + 0.8925 = 1.05While the single attack hits on 16+, 0r 25%, misses on 75%. Average damage = 0.875---------------------The key thing to focus on here isn't the average damage (enlightening as it might be), but the chance of missing completely, which tends to be lower with the flurry (not to mention the chance of hitting twice). When attacking the wizards, the last thing you want to do is miss, so flurries are particularly good ideas.S&F tries to add percentage probabilities when it should be multiplying them. A sadly common occurence <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f641.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":(" title="Frown    :("  data-smilie="3"data-shortname=":(" />Cheers</blockquote>

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