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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Christian" data-source="post: 236632" data-attributes="member: 381">PlaneSailing-you're overthinking this one. For determining the probabilities of each combination, you do need to multiply the probabilities. But if all you're interested in is the average number of total hits per round, there's nothing wrong with treating each attack independently and then adding the average number of hits for each attack.Example-suppose a character is taking two attacks, both hitting on a seventeen. That's a one in five chance of any given attack hitting. So, on a given round, there is one in twenty-five chance of both attacks hitting, an eight in twenty-five chance of exactly one attack hitting, and a sixteen in twenty-five chance of no attacks hitting. The average number of attacks that will hit in a round is (1*2 + 8)/25, or 0.40. Calculate it the 'quick & dirty' way, now: one in five for each attack is 0.2; 0.2 + 0.2 = 0.40. Try a few more-it always works! The proof is left as an exercise for the student. <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f600.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":D" title="Big grin    :D"  data-smilie="8"data-shortname=":D" />There are other interesting numbers that can't be done this way-see, um, one of my posts above. For example, if you're sure that one more hit will bring the beastie down, you're not interesting in maximizing your average damage-you want to maximize your chance to hit with at least one blow. This is often done with a normal full attack rather than a flurry-but it's a lot harder to calculate.The only problem with the 'we do the maths for you' in S&F is that the maths they do are too incomplete to give a good overview of flurrying vs. normal full attacks ...</blockquote>

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