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What makes Great Weapon Master and Sharpshooter so good?
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<blockquote data-quote="Li Shenron" data-source="post: 7433164" data-attributes="member: 1465"><p>I haven't actually seen either GWF or SS feats in play, so I am commenting only on the math.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>I think that in general the idea that a -5 to a d20 roll equates to -25% probability is misleading. I would rather think of it as the following:</p><p></p><p>[CODE]</p><p>Old roll to hit Old prob New roll to hit New Prob Hit rate difference</p><p>1 or less 95% 7 or less 70% or more -21% or less</p><p>2 95% 7 70% -26%</p><p>3 90% 8 65% -28%</p><p>4 85% 9 60% -29%</p><p>5 80% 10 55% -31%</p><p>6 75% 11 50% -33%</p><p>7 70% 12 45% -36%</p><p>8 65% 13 40% -38%</p><p>9 60% 14 35% -42%</p><p>10 55% 15 30% -46%</p><p>11 50% 16 25% -50%</p><p>12 45% 17 20% -56%</p><p>13 40% 18 15% -63%</p><p>14 35% 19 10% -71%</p><p>15 30% 20 5% -83%</p><p>16 25% 20 5% -80%</p><p>17 20% 20 5% -75%</p><p>18 15% 20 5% -67%</p><p>19 10% 20 5% -50%</p><p>20 or more 5% 20 5% no change</p><p>[/CODE]</p><p></p><p>Of course my math may be wrong, but what I see is that in general the <em>hit rate</em> (i.e. how often are you actually going to hit the target) is always decreased by more than 25% <em>except</em> against extremely easy targets which you would normally always hit unless you roll a natural 1.</p><p></p><p>For example, if you would normally hit on a natural 11 or more (hence your hit probability is 50%), if you take -5 then you would hit on a natural 16 or more (probability is 25%). The amount of successful attacks is therefore <strong>halved</strong>, not reduced to 3/4, so in general the loss is quite a lot more significant.</p><p></p><p>If the table above is correct, then taking -5 in exchange for bonus damage is more convenient against easy-to-hit but high-HP monsters, which in fact also makes sense narratively.</p><p></p><p>However, the "automatic hit on natural 20" rules creates the anomaly in the last table rows: since you always have at least 5% chance to hit, taking -5 is also <em>the least</em> convenient when you hit on a natural 15 or more, then the cost progressively drops. It might therefore makes sense to take -5 when you would normally hit on a natural 19 or more (because your hit rate drops by half, which is large but doable), and it is actually a no-brainer when you only hit on a natural 20 (because with -5 you still need the same natural 20 to hit).</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Li Shenron, post: 7433164, member: 1465"] I haven't actually seen either GWF or SS feats in play, so I am commenting only on the math. I think that in general the idea that a -5 to a d20 roll equates to -25% probability is misleading. I would rather think of it as the following: [CODE] Old roll to hit Old prob New roll to hit New Prob Hit rate difference 1 or less 95% 7 or less 70% or more -21% or less 2 95% 7 70% -26% 3 90% 8 65% -28% 4 85% 9 60% -29% 5 80% 10 55% -31% 6 75% 11 50% -33% 7 70% 12 45% -36% 8 65% 13 40% -38% 9 60% 14 35% -42% 10 55% 15 30% -46% 11 50% 16 25% -50% 12 45% 17 20% -56% 13 40% 18 15% -63% 14 35% 19 10% -71% 15 30% 20 5% -83% 16 25% 20 5% -80% 17 20% 20 5% -75% 18 15% 20 5% -67% 19 10% 20 5% -50% 20 or more 5% 20 5% no change [/CODE] Of course my math may be wrong, but what I see is that in general the [I]hit rate[/I] (i.e. how often are you actually going to hit the target) is always decreased by more than 25% [I]except[/I] against extremely easy targets which you would normally always hit unless you roll a natural 1. For example, if you would normally hit on a natural 11 or more (hence your hit probability is 50%), if you take -5 then you would hit on a natural 16 or more (probability is 25%). The amount of successful attacks is therefore [B]halved[/B], not reduced to 3/4, so in general the loss is quite a lot more significant. If the table above is correct, then taking -5 in exchange for bonus damage is more convenient against easy-to-hit but high-HP monsters, which in fact also makes sense narratively. However, the "automatic hit on natural 20" rules creates the anomaly in the last table rows: since you always have at least 5% chance to hit, taking -5 is also [I]the least[/I] convenient when you hit on a natural 15 or more, then the cost progressively drops. It might therefore makes sense to take -5 when you would normally hit on a natural 19 or more (because your hit rate drops by half, which is large but doable), and it is actually a no-brainer when you only hit on a natural 20 (because with -5 you still need the same natural 20 to hit). [/QUOTE]
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