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<blockquote data-quote="Hussar" data-source="post: 5533975" data-attributes="member: 22779">You keep repeating that the market is specifically &quot;deeply&quot; split.&nbsp; What evidence do you base this on?&nbsp; That Paizo is doing well?&nbsp; We still have very little idea of how many people are actually playing 4e or Pathfinder.Does anyone have any numbers on the RPGA?&nbsp; That would likely be a good place to start I would think.&nbsp; If the RPGA has been losing membership year on year since 4e has been released, I'd say that would be very good evidence of &quot;deep&quot; splits.The problem is, Paizo doing well doesn't really tell us much.&nbsp; What is good for Paizo might be fantastic for WOTC, or it might be an absolute failure, just because of the difference in the size of the companies.&nbsp; Doing ok, or even just kind of coasting along isn't fantastic for WOTC, but, for any other RPG company would be a red letter day, again, just because of the size difference in the companies.What is your metric for &quot;doing well&quot;?&nbsp; Doing as well as 3e did after initial release?&nbsp; Then D&amp;D has been failing for most of its history, because the only time we saw those kinds of numbers was shortly after the release of AD&amp;D in the early 80's.&nbsp; Here's why I don't buy into the idea that you have any sort of solid evidence.&nbsp; Look at En World.&nbsp; Since the release of 4e, En World has grown about 50% in registered users.&nbsp; (Looking at Wayback machine, a snapshot of <a href="http://replay.waybackmachine.org/20081108014059/http://www.enworld.org/" target="_blank">November 2008</a> states that the site had 70k members, that's a 50% jump (give or take) in 3 years)&nbsp; Give En World's fairly friendly 4e stance, wouldn't that lead to a conclusion that there is a growing population of 4e gamers?Or are those 30k new members all playing other games?Actually, this is my point.&nbsp; We don't know.&nbsp; All we know is that there has been a pretty decent spike in membership in the last 2 1/2 years.&nbsp; But, again, we lack any real context.&nbsp; We can't say that 4e is driving membership, anymore than we can say that anything else is driving membership.Look, BryonD, I'm not saying that you are wrong.&nbsp; I'm really, really not.&nbsp; I'm saying that you are making statements that don't have a lot of backing behind them.&nbsp; It's pretty flimsy and repetition does not actually make anything true.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Hussar, post: 5533975, member: 22779"] You keep repeating that the market is specifically "deeply" split. What evidence do you base this on? That Paizo is doing well? We still have very little idea of how many people are actually playing 4e or Pathfinder. Does anyone have any numbers on the RPGA? That would likely be a good place to start I would think. If the RPGA has been losing membership year on year since 4e has been released, I'd say that would be very good evidence of "deep" splits. The problem is, Paizo doing well doesn't really tell us much. What is good for Paizo might be fantastic for WOTC, or it might be an absolute failure, just because of the difference in the size of the companies. Doing ok, or even just kind of coasting along isn't fantastic for WOTC, but, for any other RPG company would be a red letter day, again, just because of the size difference in the companies. What is your metric for "doing well"? Doing as well as 3e did after initial release? Then D&D has been failing for most of its history, because the only time we saw those kinds of numbers was shortly after the release of AD&D in the early 80's. Here's why I don't buy into the idea that you have any sort of solid evidence. Look at En World. Since the release of 4e, En World has grown about 50% in registered users. (Looking at Wayback machine, a snapshot of [url=http://replay.waybackmachine.org/20081108014059/http://www.enworld.org/]November 2008[/url] states that the site had 70k members, that's a 50% jump (give or take) in 3 years) Give En World's fairly friendly 4e stance, wouldn't that lead to a conclusion that there is a growing population of 4e gamers? Or are those 30k new members all playing other games? Actually, this is my point. We don't know. All we know is that there has been a pretty decent spike in membership in the last 2 1/2 years. But, again, we lack any real context. We can't say that 4e is driving membership, anymore than we can say that anything else is driving membership. Look, BryonD, I'm not saying that you are wrong. I'm really, really not. I'm saying that you are making statements that don't have a lot of backing behind them. It's pretty flimsy and repetition does not actually make anything true. [/QUOTE]

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