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When to Roll Initiative
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<blockquote data-quote="BoldItalic" data-source="post: 6766123" data-attributes="member: 6777052"><p>I think you are confused. You can't have a low-level ranger with an initiative adjustment of 6. He would have to have a dexterity score of 22 or 23 and that's not legal.</p><p></p><p>Suppose we have a 1st-level Ranger with a Dex score of 16 and a 1st-level Wizard with a Dex score of 13. Those are quite possible. The Ranger has an initiative adjustment equal to his Dex adjustment, which is +3, while the Wizard only gets +1, which is not quite so good. The DM calls for an initiative roll. They each roll a d20 and add their adjustment. That's their initiative scores for this combat. The ranger will be somewhere in the range 4..23 and the wizard will be somewhere in the range 2..21 with all scores in those ranges equally likely. Agreed so far?</p><p></p><p>Now, what is the probability of the wizard going before the ranger? Assuming that ties are resolved 50/50 either way, if you draw up a 20x20 table of all the possibilities, you can count the ways. It works out at 162/400, or 40.5% which is less than half, isn't it? So, when you say "there is a very high chance that Wizzard starts the fight first", it simply isn't true. Less than half isn't "very high".</p><p></p><p>If you use a d10 instead of a d20, it's exactly the same numerically as if you had doubled all the dexterity adjustments. So the difference between the wizard's +1 and the rangers +3 is <em>magnified</em> and the probability of the wizard going first drops to 32%.</p><p></p><p>Have you misunderstood the meaning of "making a dexterity check"?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="BoldItalic, post: 6766123, member: 6777052"] I think you are confused. You can't have a low-level ranger with an initiative adjustment of 6. He would have to have a dexterity score of 22 or 23 and that's not legal. Suppose we have a 1st-level Ranger with a Dex score of 16 and a 1st-level Wizard with a Dex score of 13. Those are quite possible. The Ranger has an initiative adjustment equal to his Dex adjustment, which is +3, while the Wizard only gets +1, which is not quite so good. The DM calls for an initiative roll. They each roll a d20 and add their adjustment. That's their initiative scores for this combat. The ranger will be somewhere in the range 4..23 and the wizard will be somewhere in the range 2..21 with all scores in those ranges equally likely. Agreed so far? Now, what is the probability of the wizard going before the ranger? Assuming that ties are resolved 50/50 either way, if you draw up a 20x20 table of all the possibilities, you can count the ways. It works out at 162/400, or 40.5% which is less than half, isn't it? So, when you say "there is a very high chance that Wizzard starts the fight first", it simply isn't true. Less than half isn't "very high". If you use a d10 instead of a d20, it's exactly the same numerically as if you had doubled all the dexterity adjustments. So the difference between the wizard's +1 and the rangers +3 is [i]magnified[/i] and the probability of the wizard going first drops to 32%. Have you misunderstood the meaning of "making a dexterity check"? [/QUOTE]
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