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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Scylla" data-source="post: 5988739" data-attributes="member: 32833">My breakdown of the basic groups:4e players: About a third of these will never get onboard unless D&D-Next suddenly becomes 4.5e; so they'll stick with 4e. Another third, after some protesting or a win-over period, will make the switch. The last third will move ahead to Next because of brand/WotC loyalty or simply because they always want to try new editions.Pathfinder players: This will be a hard sell, but not impossible. D&D-Next, the little we've seen, has an awful lot of 3e mechanics under all that 2e paint. But these folks resisted the siren call of 4e, which means they either resisted the new & shiny or didn't like something that felt too different from 3e. Moreover, Paizo has incredible company loyalty, bolstered by good writers and adventures (IMHO), beautiful production values, and staff that actually respond to customers directly. For many Pathfinder fans, you're not just persuading them to switch systems but to switch companies.3e/3.5e players: These guys didn't make the jump to Pathfinder or 4e, so it's doubtful they're going anywhere. You might net 10% of these. Clearly, they've found what they like.1e/2e players: I'm lumping these folks together. Despite what the OP says, these guys are a rich untapped market. Most are older, and many have demonstrated a years-long loyalty to the hobby, and they have disposable cash (they don't have to ask Mom & Dad for money—they often  are Mom & Dad). The surge in retro-clones, OSRIC materials, and the DCC-RPG popularity prove that these folks will buy new product that feels old-school. Indeed, I know many of these folks, and they will happily buy again when a product/edition arrives that resembles the game they grew up with. But that's the key, the edition can't be too far evolved ("evolved" here being subjective).White box and older set players: These guys are a tiny subset and I would sadly assume them lost to any new edition. They're happier scoring a copy of Chainmail on eBay.So the two biggest groups to gain are the 4e players and 1e/2e players. Good luck with that, Wizards!That's why I stick with my theory—which WotC would never do—that WotC should actively support two editions: a 4.5e and an official retro-clone (basically a 2.5e).</blockquote>

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