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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Li Shenron" data-source="post: 5989330" data-attributes="member: 1465">I think your analysis is both reasonable and full of seriously arguable points at the same time. <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f600.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":D" title="Big grin    :D"  data-smilie="8"data-shortname=":D" />You're first of all making one big mistake: you are missing the point that most people didn't switch to the next edition because they didn't need to. They just realized that they were having enough fun, or they had already fixed their problems with house rules, or they had spent enough money, or they already mastered the rules and didn't fancy restarting, and so on with more reasons... but this happens at every edition, and it is definitely going to happen for 4e fans too! Thus it could be said that 4e fans are not one bit more likely to switch to 5e than any fan of older editions, perhaps even less inclined since at the moment they might feel "strong" enough as a community that they can keep playing 4e despite WotC active supports is going to end.Subscribers are also IMHO very often people who are fans of the gaming community more than an edition. They want the latest edition because being up to date is perhaps the most important or exciting thing for them. They probably like changing edition every few years (although they might get disappointed and grumpy if it happens too often). Clearly, it means they are 4e fans now, but among them there are also those least likely to drop D&D altoghter, because they go wherever D&D goes. In fact, if they spend more money on subscription than books, they also probably don't care about buying new books because that's what they do and like doing all the time.Next, you are underestimating the amount of grognards (pre-4e fans) who can in fact be very interested in a new edition if they think (a) provides some benefits or refreshing new ideas, or (b) provides more people to play with. At least I am in such group, having stopped buying D&D books at 3.0 (with just one 3.5 exception) and having skipped 4e altogether, and yet I am very positive that I will start buying 5e books.Then, you are kind of assuming that people who buy D&D books are always the same bunch. But most people started playing D&D when they were teenagers or young adults, and there is always a new batch of potential gamers that are not coming from any existing edition, and WotC needs to target them too.</blockquote>

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