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Message: <blockquote data-quote="innerdude" data-source="post: 5817543" data-attributes="member: 85870">After reading through some of the responses, I began making a mental  list of probable "targets" for D&D next. In terms of actual numbers  of players, I don't think anyone really has a firm grasp of just how  large each of these segments are, but to me, I think Wizards is more  pursuing "mind share" in various categories more than numbers. <ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">The hardest of hardcore "grognards"--i.e., The players who have  been running 1e, or at most, may have switched to 2e at some point  during their run; are ardently opposed to later editions (3e/4e). I  would also consider groups that switched to one of the early D&D  alternatives (Runequest, Hero, Rolemaster) and never branched out as  part of this category as well. A very narrow slice of the overall gaming  population. Haven't switched systems in 2+ decades; the likelihood of  5e causing that to change is low. Doubtful WotC considers this a  significant market.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">The "OSR" camp--those who moved ahead with later editions of  D&D (3e/4e) but didn't find it to their liking, and reverted back,  either directly to 1e/2e/OD&D/BECMI, or its OSR equivalent. I  suspect this is a significant target market for WotC. They have  experience with the later systems, and Wizards wants to get them back  purchasing relevant product.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">The 3.x holdouts--For clarity, these are NOT people that switched  to Pathfinder, but stuck with the actual WotC branch of the OGL product  line. These are also likely a significant target, at least in terms of  mind share. 4e wasn't their bag of tea, but I'm sure WotC believes that  given a real reason to move (i.e., a superior ruleset), they'll make the  jump.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Current Pathfinder players--This is probably the second-largest,  possibly largest contingent of active RPG players as a collective. WotC  would be absolutely crazy not to attempt to get these folks on board in  some way. The key to getting this group is to present 5e as an  opportunity to improve the rules in ways that Pathfinder simply didn't  tackle--improved caster/non-caster balance, more balanced math with  skills/AC/BAB, etc.     Though I'm certain there are hardcore Pathfinder players that would not  consider making the switch, I'm sure there are a number of them that are  all-to-aware of the 3.x rules system's basic flaws, and wouldn't mind  looking at something that tackles those flaws head on.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Current 4e players, casual--A significant target audience, and  likely  the easiest "sell" on 5e. This is a group that plays 4e more out  of the habit of playing "whatever D&D is currently out there." They  probably don't look at alternative rules systems much, and really just  want an actively-played D&D rules system, and will "go with the  flow." I suspect much of this category is comprised of newer players.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Current 4e players, hardcore--Other than the hardcore "grognards," this group is probably the toughest sell. They like 4e,  want to actively support 4e, and are probably slightly miffed that  product support for their chosen system is going to be significantly  lessened in the coming 24 months.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">The "Uncommitteds"--Those who play a wide variety of RPGs, don't  strongly identify with any particular rule system. Likely comprised of  groups that have a particular "style" or "vibe" that they're trying to  emulate, and simply want the rules to reflect that. There is likely  cross-over between this group and other markets that play 4e/Pathfinder.  These are the types of people that'll buy a 5e Player's Handbook just  out of habit, "to see what it looks like." Probably likely buyers, but  A. not a significant "mind share" or number, and B. not likely to be  repeat buyers of follow-up material.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">The Rules Light / Narrative-focused / Indie group--Not likely a  significant market. Mostly composed of people who simply didn't/don't  like D&D's core play style, or who actively decided to switch from  D&D to something else, because they wanted a system that better fit  their needs.</li> </ol>I'm sure there's more groups than this, or that many people fall  within several, but the interesting thing is to me, when I  think about each of these groups collectively, I don't really see that  ANY of them have a real need for 5e at all, other than #5. And  even then, that's only because the rules are being actively supported,  not because its contingents have any burning desire to play 5e over  something else.There's something to be said for good design in anything these days, particularly something we all enjoy as a hobby. But I'm beginning to think that WotC may be simply grasping at straws  here in terms of recovering market share. With the state of the current  RPG market, the chance of 5e becoming the dominant, overriding market  force that D&D has been in the past is fairly low, IMHO. I think WotC is going to be tragically mistaken if they think that they can recapture the "persona," or "mind share" they had in the past. It's a significantly more complex market than it has EVER been for the RPG hobby. We the consumers hold all the power now.</blockquote>

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