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<blockquote data-quote="Thomas Shey" data-source="post: 9025760" data-attributes="member: 7026617">I think your latter clause here contradicts your first, unless your premise is that expertise has to evaluate things deterministically rather than probablistically.&nbsp; Or put another way, someone with a good knowledge of history and samples should be able to, with information about other social factors in play in that town, at least be able to evaluate a probable reaction of the town, even if others are possible.&nbsp; That still seems an expression of expertise to me.&nbsp; In fact, expertise seems relevant to establishing a reasonable range of probable outcomes, such as one might use to put a table together.&nbsp; That seems quite far from &quot;no knowledge or expertise possible here&quot; even if the result is not deterministic and there's room to argue the result; anything involving social and psychological elements can produce disagreement, but that does not mean there is no difference between someone going on intuition and someone who has studied the subject in relevance of expertise.&nbsp; Any other claim seems to make any social science pointless.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Thomas Shey, post: 9025760, member: 7026617"] I think your latter clause here contradicts your first, unless your premise is that expertise has to evaluate things deterministically rather than probablistically. Or put another way, someone with a good knowledge of history and samples should be able to, with information about other social factors in play in that town, at least be able to evaluate a [I]probable[/I] reaction of the town, even if others are possible. That still seems an expression of expertise to me. In fact, expertise seems relevant to establishing a reasonable range of probable outcomes, such as one might use to put a table together. That seems quite far from "no knowledge or expertise possible here" even if the result is not deterministic and there's room to argue the result; anything involving social and psychological elements can produce disagreement, but that does not mean there is no difference between someone going on intuition and someone who has studied the subject in relevance of expertise. Any other claim seems to make any social science pointless. [/QUOTE]

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