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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Ovinomancer" data-source="post: 7847259" data-attributes="member: 16814">Right, so the error in your conception here is that you’re comparing the total odds of a miss that’s turned into a hit for advantage to the raw miss conversion rate for precision while neglecting the odds of a miss to begin with.  This greatly skews your comparison because you’re comparing at different points. To do apples to apples, you need to compare the advantage miss conversion rate of 65% to the 51.6% of precision (at the 65% hit rate point).  OR, you need to compare the miss and convert rate.  For advantage, you identified this correctly as 35% x 65% or 22.75%.  For precision, you need to do a bit more work.  For a hit chance of 65%, you need to roll an 8 or better to succeed.  The d8 covers 40% of the outcomes, but 1 cannot be converted, so we need to exclude the chance a 1 is converted.  That leaves 2-7.  Each of these rolls comes up 5% of the time, so we need to multiple the chance of conversation at a given number 2-7 by the odds that number is rolled.  For 7, conversion is 100% times 5% chance of occurrence, or 5% conversion rate.  For 6, conversion is 87.5% times 5% occurrence for 4.375% conversion rate.  And so on.  This sums to a total conversion rate for precision at 65% chance to hit of 20.6%.  Advantage is better.  I said above that efficiency of precision is likely better, and you’ve noted a few other things that make precision attractive in action economy.  That’s good.  However, the point I made was narrow – that advantage is better than precision for conversion except in some situations unlikely to occur (specifically hit chances at or below 30%).  This remains true – advantage is mathematically better than precision at converting misses.  That was the extent of my argument, and I stand by it.</blockquote>

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