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Why I Think D&DN is In Trouble
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<blockquote data-quote="Mistwell" data-source="post: 6243459" data-attributes="member: 2525"><p>I disagree. That was not the original dispute. He said sales of OSR products have increased exponentially in the past 18 months. And I am saying, if that were true, you'd at least see some upward swing in discussion of the OSR products over that same time frame. Over the last 18 months, OSR products have either maintained or FALLEN in the amount they're being discussed. That doesn't track precisely to sales of course, but I think it disproves his claim quite well. There is no way people would talk about them less, if over that same time they were exponentially increasing their purchases of those same products. Some portion would be saying "Look at this new shiny thing I just bought" and "We just played our first game of X and love it!" online. And that's just not being reflected in the numbers.</p><p></p><p>And as he backed off his own claim, I think the point is done at this point. Even he doesn't any longer claim their sales grew exponentially. </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>For OSR purposes, as I explained, yes it is helpful for that. I know you want to talk about 5e and such, but I don't see how that's relevant to this aspect of the thread. If the OSR were growing exponentially over the past 18 months, a lot more people would be talking about it than are. Much like a lot of people are talking about Pathfinder, a lot of people are playing and buying Pathfinder products, and that shows up in the numbers. People talk about their purchases. They talk about the things they want to buy in the future or are considering buying. And yes, they even talk about things they don't want to buy. But if stuff is not being talked about at all, good or bad, I think it's a pretty good sign it's not selling all that well.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>It's not like you're seeing games universally loathed showing up on that list. In general people talk about the things that interest thing. If something doesn't interest them, they don't read a lot about it and post a lot about it.</p><p> </p><p></p><p></p><p>Morrus can post history, but most of us cannot. I've been watching it since he created it, and there are a few screenshots here and there that are helpful. When he first started, Pathfinder was clearly beating 5e in terms of things people were talking about. Since then, slowly but surely, 5e overtook Pathfinder, and now it's being talked about by a sizable margin more. Over the same period of time, most other D&D products have fallen at least a bit.</p><p></p><p>Here are a few:</p><p></p><p>Sept 11, 2013 from Wayback Machine (no numbers just positions):</p><p></p><p><img src="https://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/398x600q90/827/jman.jpg" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " data-size="" style="" /></p><p></p><p>Sept 23, 2013:</p><p></p><p><img src="https://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/565x360q90/27/plwf.jpg" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " data-size="" style="" /></p><p></p><p>Dec 3, 2013:</p><p><img src="https://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/397x607q90/600/b0lq.jpg" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " data-size="" style="" /></p><p></p><p>Jan 10, 2014 (today):</p><p><img src="https://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/399x493q90/163/0nwr.jpg" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " data-size="" style="" /></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Mistwell, post: 6243459, member: 2525"] I disagree. That was not the original dispute. He said sales of OSR products have increased exponentially in the past 18 months. And I am saying, if that were true, you'd at least see some upward swing in discussion of the OSR products over that same time frame. Over the last 18 months, OSR products have either maintained or FALLEN in the amount they're being discussed. That doesn't track precisely to sales of course, but I think it disproves his claim quite well. There is no way people would talk about them less, if over that same time they were exponentially increasing their purchases of those same products. Some portion would be saying "Look at this new shiny thing I just bought" and "We just played our first game of X and love it!" online. And that's just not being reflected in the numbers. And as he backed off his own claim, I think the point is done at this point. Even he doesn't any longer claim their sales grew exponentially. For OSR purposes, as I explained, yes it is helpful for that. I know you want to talk about 5e and such, but I don't see how that's relevant to this aspect of the thread. If the OSR were growing exponentially over the past 18 months, a lot more people would be talking about it than are. Much like a lot of people are talking about Pathfinder, a lot of people are playing and buying Pathfinder products, and that shows up in the numbers. People talk about their purchases. They talk about the things they want to buy in the future or are considering buying. And yes, they even talk about things they don't want to buy. But if stuff is not being talked about at all, good or bad, I think it's a pretty good sign it's not selling all that well. It's not like you're seeing games universally loathed showing up on that list. In general people talk about the things that interest thing. If something doesn't interest them, they don't read a lot about it and post a lot about it. Morrus can post history, but most of us cannot. I've been watching it since he created it, and there are a few screenshots here and there that are helpful. When he first started, Pathfinder was clearly beating 5e in terms of things people were talking about. Since then, slowly but surely, 5e overtook Pathfinder, and now it's being talked about by a sizable margin more. Over the same period of time, most other D&D products have fallen at least a bit. Here are a few: Sept 11, 2013 from Wayback Machine (no numbers just positions): [IMG]https://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/398x600q90/827/jman.jpg[/IMG] Sept 23, 2013: [IMG]https://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/565x360q90/27/plwf.jpg[/IMG] Dec 3, 2013: [IMG]https://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/397x607q90/600/b0lq.jpg[/IMG] Jan 10, 2014 (today): [IMG]https://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/399x493q90/163/0nwr.jpg[/IMG] [/QUOTE]
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