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Why I Think D&DN is In Trouble
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<blockquote data-quote="Mistwell" data-source="post: 6243529" data-attributes="member: 2525"><p>Again, it has a correlation for either: 1) interest in the game, or 2) actual ownership of the game.</p><p></p><p>If the game is not out yet, obviously it's interest in the game.</p><p></p><p>But, I think the Pathfinder data, and some of the other data we have on sales from some of the other lesser-selling games, matches pretty well to this chart when you compare them. </p><p></p><p>Right now Pathfinder is the best selling game, and it's also the highest ranking game as far as games for sale now.</p><p></p><p>Compare it to the sales of some other games, like Numenera and Fate (I think we have pretty hard data on their sales numbers), and the ratio seems to hold pretty well.</p><p></p><p>There is obviously a strong correlation between how well a game is selling, and how much people are talking about it. I *think* there is also a strong correlation between how well a game is likely to initially sell, and how much people are talking about it prior to it's release, given some polling data we have an comparison to prior polling data just before the release of another game.</p><p></p><p>It's not causation, it's not 100%, but I think it's a fair approximation. If you have serious doubts, you can simply enter an error factor into it, and you will see for most rationale error factors the rough comparison still holds.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Mistwell, post: 6243529, member: 2525"] Again, it has a correlation for either: 1) interest in the game, or 2) actual ownership of the game. If the game is not out yet, obviously it's interest in the game. But, I think the Pathfinder data, and some of the other data we have on sales from some of the other lesser-selling games, matches pretty well to this chart when you compare them. Right now Pathfinder is the best selling game, and it's also the highest ranking game as far as games for sale now. Compare it to the sales of some other games, like Numenera and Fate (I think we have pretty hard data on their sales numbers), and the ratio seems to hold pretty well. There is obviously a strong correlation between how well a game is selling, and how much people are talking about it. I *think* there is also a strong correlation between how well a game is likely to initially sell, and how much people are talking about it prior to it's release, given some polling data we have an comparison to prior polling data just before the release of another game. It's not causation, it's not 100%, but I think it's a fair approximation. If you have serious doubts, you can simply enter an error factor into it, and you will see for most rationale error factors the rough comparison still holds. [/QUOTE]
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