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<blockquote data-quote="Mistwell" data-source="post: 6243555" data-attributes="member: 2525">Well things with Kickstarters give you a basis for comparison as you know the numbers they sell in the Kickstarter usually.&nbsp; All three of those had kickstarters I believe.&nbsp; I've never played FATE, but apparently they sold a metric crapload (that's the technical term for it) in their kickstarter. And so did Numenera and 13th Age.&nbsp; Those three rank 211, 127, and 114, so it's all pretty close (by comparison, D&amp;D Next has 3025, and Pathfinder 1907).&nbsp; The error rate gets a bit more sensitive as you get down to the lower numbers so my guess is all three of those products sold roughly as well as each other in terms of quantity.&nbsp; I think the profit issue is a different story - the FATE kickstarter sold a ton of draft documents for $1 or $10, while Numenera took in a lot more money per book. It's definitely not a perfect comparison.&nbsp; But, I think it is a decent rough measure.For D&amp;D Next I think it's a good sign that roughly the same number of people say in polls they intend to buy the core books, as those who said they intend to buy the 4e core books before it came out (and 4e had strong initial sales), and also D&amp;D Next is being talked about more than any other RPG right now by a fair margin.&nbsp; I think those are two signs the game will enjoy strong initial sales.&nbsp; The Magic 8-Ball is quite cloudy on the issue of whether it can sustain such sales, as obviously 4e failed to do so.&nbsp; I just think the idea that 5e is in trouble, as suggested by this thread, is not well supported.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Mistwell, post: 6243555, member: 2525"] Well things with Kickstarters give you a basis for comparison as you know the numbers they sell in the Kickstarter usually. All three of those had kickstarters I believe. I've never played FATE, but apparently they sold a metric crapload (that's the technical term for it) in their kickstarter. And so did Numenera and 13th Age. Those three rank 211, 127, and 114, so it's all pretty close (by comparison, D&D Next has 3025, and Pathfinder 1907). The error rate gets a bit more sensitive as you get down to the lower numbers so my guess is all three of those products sold roughly as well as each other in terms of quantity. I think the profit issue is a different story - the FATE kickstarter sold a ton of draft documents for $1 or $10, while Numenera took in a lot more money per book. It's definitely not a perfect comparison. But, I think it is a decent rough measure. For D&D Next I think it's a good sign that roughly the same number of people say in polls they intend to buy the core books, as those who said they intend to buy the 4e core books before it came out (and 4e had strong initial sales), and also D&D Next is being talked about more than any other RPG right now by a fair margin. I think those are two signs the game will enjoy strong initial sales. The Magic 8-Ball is quite cloudy on the issue of whether it can sustain such sales, as obviously 4e failed to do so. I just think the idea that 5e is in trouble, as suggested by this thread, is not well supported. [/QUOTE]

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