NOW LIVE! Today's the day you meet your new best friend. You don’t have to leave Wolfy behind... In 'Pets & Sidekicks' your companions level up with you!

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Message: <blockquote data-quote="clearstream" data-source="post: 7996713" data-attributes="member: 71699">I feel like it is not so much knowing what the odds are, but knowing what that implies, that is at issue. I mean that as you say - percentiles can display the odds plainly - but knowing how to take that is another matter. Say I succeed 75% of the time: what should I stake for what pay-out at those odds, and how should I understand the set of possible future worlds that I might land in?In very simple terms, I want stake / 75% to be < pay-out. So were we dealing strictly in gp with all values known, then I should not put up 10gp for anything less than say 14gp. The trouble is, and this I guess is part of the OPs general point, that values may be obfuscated. Compounding odds is one way they might be obfuscated, but I think that is fairly easy to notice. Consider the difficulty of knowing going in what sort of creature is worth fighting for how much divers loot and XP? The stakes and pay-outs aren't necessarily commensurable!One important stake is real time invested in a character, which increases as they go. When I roll up a character, I might have invested say an hour or less. A year in, I might have invested 100 hours or more! That means that odds that might have seemed reasonable (if I knew them) at level 1, might be very unreasonable at level 10. So this is where I find the initial analysis in this thread needing to be expanded on. Yes, compounding odds are often misunderstood, but for me that barely scratches the surface of this complex and interesting aspect of RPG.</blockquote>

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