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WotC: 'Of Course We're Going To Do' Baldur's Gate 4
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<blockquote data-quote="Ruin Explorer" data-source="post: 9750628" data-attributes="member: 18"><p>Yeah that "we" makes sense for sure.</p><p></p><p>I think the most likely outcome here is one of two things:</p><p></p><p>1) By far the most likely - WotC sells/spins off/shuts down its videogame studios before BG4 is released (quite possibly before it's started). </p><p></p><p>Unless Exodus is a massive hit (and my guess is it's a real 75%-80% Metacritic kind of game, which will sharply limit sales - but that opinion may be updated as we approach release), then I think there will be a lot of skepticism in the c-suite towards all these expensive game studios. But they may give the God of War guy's action game time to release - I think the odds of that being good and doing well are a little higher, especially because games like that are fairly popular and slightly underserved (because that market has been dominated by Soulslikes for a long time now). If that is also only a low-key success though, or worse, I think that'll be it for WotC's videogame studios.</p><p></p><p>2) Next most likely - BG4 gets cancelled 30-80% of the way through development. If the projected cost is $100m (a very low estimate), and it gets cancelled 2 years in, whoever cancelled it can claim to have saved WotC $60m and declare himself a hero and probably get a promotion, big bonus, etc. Even if you cancel it in year 4, that's "saving" $20m + however much advertising and any physical distribution would have cost on top of the dev costs, and so on.</p><p></p><p>I think it actually reaching release and flopping is probably quite unlikely.</p><p></p><p></p><p><img class="smilie smilie--emoji" alt="🤷♂️" src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f937-2642.png" title="Man shrugging :man_shrugging:" data-shortname=":man_shrugging:" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" /> I'm not assuming it'll be a failure, so I'm not sure who you're referring to exactly. But is unlikely to be a success, and that's not "because of the name of the producer".</p><p></p><p>It's because AAA CRPGs which aren't failures hard-require two things:</p><p></p><p>1) Commitment of large amount of money for a long time. </p><p></p><p>$100m would a dead minimum for a BG3-style game, but realistically it'd going to be more for any company that hasn't done this before because they have to develop tools, expertise, etc.</p><p></p><p>And that means the publisher (WotC in this case, which is who I assume is what you mean by "producer") needs to be stable enough that they don't going around cancelling or dropping projects. Sigil, however, suggests WotC isn't there. Exodus may prove otherwise (but also may get cancelled itself).</p><p></p><p>2) A team who have the skills and experience to make an AAA CRPG.</p><p></p><p>WotC don't currently have this. Just period. No point arguing about it. It's possible the Archetype team might have enough of the skills/experience after Exodus is finished, but there's no other WotC studio that anyone has suggested that could do it.</p><p></p><p>You're trying to make out like I'm being unreasonable, but my position here is very reasonable and further, reasoned. It's not "because of the name". If WotC had bought a CRPG studio and/or was having a team build up by making small CRPGs (if they'd wanted to, they could have 1-2 out already, if that had been their priority) as they gain the experience/skills to make an AAA CRPG, then I'd think failure was less likely.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Ruin Explorer, post: 9750628, member: 18"] Yeah that "we" makes sense for sure. I think the most likely outcome here is one of two things: 1) By far the most likely - WotC sells/spins off/shuts down its videogame studios before BG4 is released (quite possibly before it's started). Unless Exodus is a massive hit (and my guess is it's a real 75%-80% Metacritic kind of game, which will sharply limit sales - but that opinion may be updated as we approach release), then I think there will be a lot of skepticism in the c-suite towards all these expensive game studios. But they may give the God of War guy's action game time to release - I think the odds of that being good and doing well are a little higher, especially because games like that are fairly popular and slightly underserved (because that market has been dominated by Soulslikes for a long time now). If that is also only a low-key success though, or worse, I think that'll be it for WotC's videogame studios. 2) Next most likely - BG4 gets cancelled 30-80% of the way through development. If the projected cost is $100m (a very low estimate), and it gets cancelled 2 years in, whoever cancelled it can claim to have saved WotC $60m and declare himself a hero and probably get a promotion, big bonus, etc. Even if you cancel it in year 4, that's "saving" $20m + however much advertising and any physical distribution would have cost on top of the dev costs, and so on. I think it actually reaching release and flopping is probably quite unlikely. 🤷♂️ I'm not assuming it'll be a failure, so I'm not sure who you're referring to exactly. But is unlikely to be a success, and that's not "because of the name of the producer". It's because AAA CRPGs which aren't failures hard-require two things: 1) Commitment of large amount of money for a long time. $100m would a dead minimum for a BG3-style game, but realistically it'd going to be more for any company that hasn't done this before because they have to develop tools, expertise, etc. And that means the publisher (WotC in this case, which is who I assume is what you mean by "producer") needs to be stable enough that they don't going around cancelling or dropping projects. Sigil, however, suggests WotC isn't there. Exodus may prove otherwise (but also may get cancelled itself). 2) A team who have the skills and experience to make an AAA CRPG. WotC don't currently have this. Just period. No point arguing about it. It's possible the Archetype team might have enough of the skills/experience after Exodus is finished, but there's no other WotC studio that anyone has suggested that could do it. You're trying to make out like I'm being unreasonable, but my position here is very reasonable and further, reasoned. It's not "because of the name". If WotC had bought a CRPG studio and/or was having a team build up by making small CRPGs (if they'd wanted to, they could have 1-2 out already, if that had been their priority) as they gain the experience/skills to make an AAA CRPG, then I'd think failure was less likely. [/QUOTE]
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WotC: 'Of Course We're Going To Do' Baldur's Gate 4
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