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Message: <blockquote data-quote="JustinA" data-source="post: 3473435" data-attributes="member: 51618">We honestly don't know enough to draw any meaningful conclusion from those numbers.1. If all 5 million members of that active player base were actively buying D&D products every month, the RPG industry would be a lot healthier than it is today. Heck, if it was even a significant fraction of that number the RPG industry would be a lot healthier today.2. So what is the actual number for the active customers in the D&D community?3. What percentage of people subscribed to both magazines? Is it 50% (meaning there's a readership of 60,000 for both magazines)? Is it 90% (meaning there's a readership of 45,000 for both magazines)?4. How much influence will those 40,000 to 80,000 readers on the gamers around them? Is it typical for each reader to belong to a group of 4 other players while being the only one to subscribe? Would 40,000 purchasers of the magazine actually suggest a user base of 200,000? (The magazine industry, in general, uses a 5-to-1 ratio of sales-to-readership when setting advertising rates, IIRC. Is that number accurate? Is it lower or higher than the number for a magazine specifically directed at supporting a group activity?5. What percentage of those 40,000 to 80,000 purchasers of the magazines will actually be significantly upset by WotC's decision? And is that percentage the hardcore fans who make up the most active consumers?6. And, furthermore, how many people purchase the magazine infrequently? Nearly 75% of the magazine's copies appear to be sold to people who don't subscribe. If only 25% of the copies are sold to readers who only buy, say, 1-in-4 issues you've doubled the number of people actively using these magazines.7. How much importance is WotC putting on their new "digital initiative"? How much importance was WotC giving to the idea of turning existing Dungeon/Dragon subscribers into subscribers of their new digital content?For an example to demonstrate why these numbers are all important in actually understanding the impact upset Dungeon/Dragon subscribers could have we'll need to make up some numbers of thin air:Let's say that the typical WotC supplement sells 50,000 copies. Let's say that there are 10,000 fans who religiously buy essentially every WotC supplement as its released. Let's say that another 20,000 copies are sold to a customer base of 100,000 customers who buy 1-in-5 WotC supplements. The other 20,000 copies are sold to more casual customers, who we'll ignore for simpicity's sake.How likely is it that a fan who buys every official supplement would also buy the official magazines? Pretty likely. So let's assume that pretty much all of the 10,000 hard-corers use Dragon or Dungeon at least some of the time. Let's also make the assumption that these are the fans most likely to be pissed off by WotC's decision. Maybe some of them just drop WotC altogether; maybe some just stop buying religiously. Whatever. Let's say this base takes a hit of just 10%. That's instantly a 2% drop in sales for every single WotC product.A similar 10% hit in the 100,000 customers who buy 1-in-5 supplements represents a 4% drop in sales.So if just 11,000 people (25% of the lowest possible number of magazine readers; but probably more like 10% of a reasonable estimate) decide to significantly reduce or drop their WotC purchasing habits, WotC could be looking at a 5-6% drop in sales.Or they might be looking at more. Or they might be looking at less. Like I say, we just don't know enough about the numbers.The 5 million number is based on the exact same type of market research that the 4 million number would have been based on. (And, actually, the research behind the 5 million number was probably more thorough, since it was the result of actual market research -- whereas Newsweek's number was probably just a flat poll.)The population of the U.S. was 234,000,000 in 1984: <a href="http://www.enworld.org/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=3472158" target="_blank">http://www.enworld.org/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=3472158</a>So a player base of 4,000,000 in 1984 represented 1.7% of the population.1.7% of the population today would be 5,000,000.And there's really no reason to suspect that the market has actually shrunk in any significant degree. 3rd Edition was a massive success in recapturing and growing the fanbase by all accounts.</blockquote>

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