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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Rasyr" data-source="post: 1959550" data-attributes="member: 2855">Okay, having just read through both pages of this thread, there are several things that I would like to comment on. First, I will make a few general comments, and then some specific replies to a few posters (this is likely to take a while, so hang on to your garters!).First off, I do believe that 4E will be coming out next year (2006), and that it will be much more mini oriented than the 3.x versions. I also believe that it will not be OGL, that it will be a closed system. I have a number of reasons for believing this, but won't get into them in detail here as I have already done so in other threads.Will 4E be popluar? I have no idea. However, I do know that there is a large portion of D&D players who will purchase just because it says D&D on the cover. I doubt that very few of that type are here on these forums, and that relatively few of that group are even online (except for maybe the WotC forums, from what I hear, that place is full of many highly D&D-centric gamers). The first that they will hear of it is through Dragon (advertisements or special features).  I do not think that the issue of popularity with gamers (online or otherwise) will be what drives the release of 4E. I think that it will be economic issues, rather than system issues.I do not expect backwards-compatability either, especially if it is more minis oriented like I think it will be.I think that not only do they already know this, but this is what they would be counting on. That many folks would buy it just because it is D&D.Exactly! This is why Hasbro/WotC would not be overly worried about doing a new edition IMO. Sure, there would be lots of complaints, and then many would go ahead and get it anyways.And 3.5 being released 3 years after 3.0 was not an unpopular decision? It was, it was very unpopular, until it came out. Then folks bought it anyways. The same type of thing  will happen for 3E when/if it appears.You are quite right in every detail in your post. It is the marketing numbers that will determine things, not anything else.Not that long ago, Charles Ryan said something to the effect that 2004 was the best year yet. I seem to remember that the same thing was said about 2001 (the year after 3.0 was released) as well.  Year 1 - release (2000, 2003)Year 2 - best year in sales (2001, 2004)Year 3 - sales drop a little bit (2002, 2005)Year 4/1 - new release (2003, 2006)That is the pattern that I am seeing. I may, of course, be wrong and next year (2006) will prove whether I am or not, but that is what I am seeing/extrapolating. It is very similar to the CCG business model. Major core releases every few years, with major non-core (Eberron?) in the years inbetween.Think "More minis dependance!"  <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f600.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":D" title="Big grin    :D"  data-smilie="8"data-shortname=":D" />I don't think anybody has said 4E would be an entirely new system, well, at least I haven't. I have said that I think it will be much more mini oriented, but other than that, I have not made any guesses.Huh?!?!?!?! If Wizard's designers ARE the ones who design 4E, then they will pretty much automatically have the expertise in the the system that THEY design. That much is a given. You cannot design a system without having expertise in what you are designing. Now, some of their authors may no longer have system expertise, but that is a different story altogether.</blockquote>

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