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D&D Older Editions, OSR, & D&D Variants
Would 4E be Popular?
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<blockquote data-quote="Rasyr" data-source="post: 1968518" data-attributes="member: 2855"><p>IIRC, Dancey said the same thing about 2001, the year after 3.0 was released.</p><p></p><p>It very well could be. Please notice that I have said either 2006 or 2008 (although I personally believe it will be 2006) in the past.</p><p></p><p>It all depends on the decisions that were made. When 3.5 was announced, there was a rant on the Malhavoc site that stated that 3.5 was scheduled for 2005 (not 2003), so it is no stretch of the imagination to consider the plan was to release a new "version #" every 5 years.</p><p></p><p>Thus, if the shortening of the cycle for 3.5 was a one-time event that would make 2008 the likely date for the release of D&D4. However, I don't think it was a one-time event, I think it was a shift in Hasbro's perceptions, and their desire for continuing revenue such as the CCGs produce. Thus, I think that the entire cycle was reduced from 5 years to 3 years (to follow a more CCG-like business model), and that we will thus see D&D4 in 2006.</p><p></p><p>As for my other predictions, the prediction about the increased dependence on minis comes from 3.5 already increasing the dependence on minis, and from the collectible nature of how they are selling the minis, and from Hasbro being primarily a toy company, thus they would want more dependence on something like that.</p><p></p><p>The prediction about 4E not being OGL. Well, that one comes more from a gut feeling than anything I have seen or heard, but to me it seems that they will not use OGL for 4E as other companies using OGL have cut into their market share. The size of the pie may be larger overall, but WotC has ended up with a smaller amount than it would have had had it not used the OGL. This combined with the number of OGL products that reduce/remove the need to buy the core books, is what, IMO, cause them to stop using the OGL.</p><p></p><p>Personally, I don't WANT to see 4E in 2006, nor in 2008, I would prefer that they wait until 2010 (7 years between editions, as 3.5 actually was a new edition whether they called it that or not).</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Rasyr, post: 1968518, member: 2855"] IIRC, Dancey said the same thing about 2001, the year after 3.0 was released. It very well could be. Please notice that I have said either 2006 or 2008 (although I personally believe it will be 2006) in the past. It all depends on the decisions that were made. When 3.5 was announced, there was a rant on the Malhavoc site that stated that 3.5 was scheduled for 2005 (not 2003), so it is no stretch of the imagination to consider the plan was to release a new "version #" every 5 years. Thus, if the shortening of the cycle for 3.5 was a one-time event that would make 2008 the likely date for the release of D&D4. However, I don't think it was a one-time event, I think it was a shift in Hasbro's perceptions, and their desire for continuing revenue such as the CCGs produce. Thus, I think that the entire cycle was reduced from 5 years to 3 years (to follow a more CCG-like business model), and that we will thus see D&D4 in 2006. As for my other predictions, the prediction about the increased dependence on minis comes from 3.5 already increasing the dependence on minis, and from the collectible nature of how they are selling the minis, and from Hasbro being primarily a toy company, thus they would want more dependence on something like that. The prediction about 4E not being OGL. Well, that one comes more from a gut feeling than anything I have seen or heard, but to me it seems that they will not use OGL for 4E as other companies using OGL have cut into their market share. The size of the pie may be larger overall, but WotC has ended up with a smaller amount than it would have had had it not used the OGL. This combined with the number of OGL products that reduce/remove the need to buy the core books, is what, IMO, cause them to stop using the OGL. Personally, I don't WANT to see 4E in 2006, nor in 2008, I would prefer that they wait until 2010 (7 years between editions, as 3.5 actually was a new edition whether they called it that or not). [/QUOTE]
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