ZOMG! D&D drops to #4

[Morrus]

In Q3 of 2013 (to match the iCV2 numbers...)

http://www.evilhat.com/home/q3-sales-2013/

FATE Core sold... 2059 copies. It's lifetime total was 11873 copies at the end of the quarter.

So, in terms of number of copies of rules, Timewatch came close, but did not beat, FATE Core for number of copies sold. Timewatch beat the stuffing out of the effective revenue, though - a base copy of FATE Core costs $25, so that's about $51000K in sales for the quarter, where Timewatch effectively had over $100K in the kickstarter.

There are points where the comparison falls over, of course. The Timewatch Kickstarter is a one-time thing, while FATE Core is a longer-running model that has already exceeded the kicksatarter by a factor of two in dollars. And FATE Core's had apparently some really weird swings in sales - Q1 was 9600+, Q2 was 120, Q3 was 2059 units. So, maybe I picked a bad example for comparison.

And, of course, Fate Core's own Kickstarter raised half a million dollars. Different period, though.

 

[Umbran]

And, of course, Fate Core's own Kickstarter raised half a million dollars. Different period, though.

Of course. It looks like Evil Hat's counting the Kickstarter units as "Sales" for Q1 of 2013 in terms of units, so clearly the FATE Core kickstarter was gigantic, compared to Timewatch's.

However, I think the data we have here is pretty demonstrative of how poor an overall indicator the iCV2 reports are these days. A single solid Kickstarter can rival a game in the top 5.

Also, Evil Hat's data suggests that maybe sales can be pretty swingy, seen quarter-by-quarter. They had one huge quarter from the kickstarter, then a dry gap between the kickstarter and sales though other channels, and then a bounce back to interesting levels.

Together, we might want to question using short term results as a measure of how well a game's really doing.

 

[Morrus]

Together, we might want to question using short term results as a measure of how well a game's really doing.

Does anyone to whom it actually matters do that? I mean, I guess it's possible, but it doesn't sound likely from even the most corporate of game companies. Certainly those top 5 are in it for the long game, not a quarter.

 

[Umbran]

Does anyone to whom it actually matters do that?

Note how I said "we"? As in us, on EN World. Whether we matter in some grander sense is less material to me than whether we're seeing nasty arguments over data that doesn't mean so much

 

[Morrus]

Note how I said "we"? As in us, on EN World. Whether we matter in some grander sense is less material to me than whether we're seeing nasty arguments over data that doesn't mean so much

Well, I guess it's mildly better than just making it up, which is what we'd do otherwise!

 

[Bluenose]

Of course. It looks like Evil Hat's counting the Kickstarter units as "Sales" for Q1 of 2013 in terms of units, so clearly the FATE Core kickstarter was gigantic, compared to Timewatch's.

However, I think the data we have here is pretty demonstrative of how poor an overall indicator the iCV2 reports are these days. A single solid Kickstarter can rival a game in the top 5.

Also, Evil Hat's data suggests that maybe sales can be pretty swingy, seen quarter-by-quarter. They had one huge quarter from the kickstarter, then a dry gap between the kickstarter and sales though other channels, and then a bounce back to interesting levels.

Together, we might want to question using short term results as a measure of how well a game's really doing.

I think it's possible that the big drop off in Fate Core sales was the end of the kickstarter and the time it took to get reprints into the distribution chain. Evil Hat certainly underestimated possible Dresden Files sales when that came out, as they said in a previous blog post, and had to go to reprint to get more stock available.

 

[Umbran]

I think it's possible that the big drop off in Fate Core sales was the end of the kickstarter and the time it took to get reprints into the distribution chain.

Or just prints. I expect that they handled prints for the kickstarter differently than normal distribution. A lag to switch channels seems understandable.

 

[TarionzCousin]

Well, I guess it's mildly better than just making it up, which is what we'd do otherwise!

Shhhh. Don't ruin the illusion for me.