Only a Fighter with a longbow or heavy crossbow does more damage per round (the crossbow requires the extra feat).
Again, your maths is wrong.
From 4 attacks I assume we're level 11. You mention Dual Wielder so I'll assume one feat.
A Dual Wielder uses two Longswords at 1d8+5 each.
From the 4 attacks, we have an average damage of 38 (which will have to be multiplied by accuracy).
From the chance of critting, we have an average damage of 4*0.05*4.5, which is 0.9.
A Great Weapon Master uses a Greatsword at 2d6+5.
From the 3 attacks (not using the -5/+10, because otherwise this table becomes 5 columns wider) we have an average damage of 40 (again, multiplied by accuracy).
5% of the time, we crit, adding not just 2d6, but another attack, making things complicated.
First the damage bonus from the crit: 0.05*25 = 1.25
Second the damage from the bonus attack: 0.05*13.33333 = 0.66666666 (again, multiplied by accuracy)
Thirdly the damage bonus from the crit from the bonus attack: 0.05*0.05*8.3333333= 0.020833333
A Crossbow Expert Archer uses a Hand Crossbow at 1d6+5. It also has 4 attacks.
From the attacks: 34 damage (multiplied by accuracy)
From the crits: 4*3.5*0.05 = 0.7
A Duelist, with no feats, deals 1d8+7 three times.
From the attacks: 34.5 damage (* accuracy)
From the crits: 3*0.05*4.5 = 0.675
So let's put this into a table, red means TWF is worse, green is better:
Style \ AC | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
Two Weapon Fighting (Dual Wielder) | 37 | 37 | 35.1 | 33.2 | 31.3 | 29.4 | 27.5 | 25.6 | 23.7 | 21.8 | 19.9 | 18.0 | 16.1 | 14.2 | 12.3 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
Duelist (No Feat) | 33.45 | 33.45 | 31.725 | 30 | 28.275 | 26.55 | 24.825 | 23.1 | 21.375 | 19.65 | 17.925 | 16.2 | 14.475 | 12.75 | 11.025 | 9.3 | 7.575 | 5.85 | 4.125 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
Archery (Crossbow Expert) | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 31.3 | 29.6 | 27.9 | 26.2 | 24.5 | 22.8 | 21.1 | 19.4 | 17.7 | 16 | 14.3 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.4 |
Great Weapon Fighter (Great Weapon Master) | 26.1791333(...) | 26.1791333(...) | 24.9083 | 23.6374666(...) | 22.3666333(...) | 21.0958 | 19.8249666(...) | 18.5541333(...) | 17.2833 | 16.0124666(...) | 14.7416333(...) | 13.4708 | 12.1999666(...) | 10.9291333(...) | 9.6583 | 8.3874666(...) | 7.1166333(...) | 5.8458 | 4.5749666(...) | 3.3041333(...) | 3.3041333(...) | 3.3041333(...) |
N.B. That the above
doesn't include Action Surge, which favours every style
bar TWF.
I'd do one for GWF with -5/+10, and one for every style with Action Surge, but I'm tired of all the maths.