4.33 Years in: What Now for 5E? (and have we reached "Peak Edition?")

[OB1]

I think we have at least one or two more print versions before that.

You might be surprised. I saw close up the 35mm film industry completely collapse over the course of a couple of years and what’s going on now in print has a very similar feel.

Already, paper suppliers are going out of business left and right, causing paper costs to go up, leading to more publishers switching to digital, leading to more paper suppliers going out of business. There is a chance, of course, it could stabilize, but I’d wager paper will become, like 35mm film, a specialty item in the next three to five years.

 

[Al2O3]

Does anyone know how sales of the print books currently compare to Beyond?
Because I can easily imagine that 5e will be the last physical edition of D&D. I know that sounds blasphemous, but the bottom line is that the print business is rapidly collapsing, and as it continues, the costs to produce hardcover books is going to skyrocket.
Combine that with the fact that a digital edition can be kept “evergreen” by continuing to patch and slowly change the original material, and it seems too good an option to pass up.
Starter Sets could continue to be physically produced as an entry point that can be sold in stores and unwrapped on birthdays, but that would be it.
Instead of 6e in 4-5 years, WotC could just phase out print, and then start making changes, repackaging PHB or MM “books” with the most popular and updated content at the time.
In fact, I wonder if the latest set of errata, which clearly went beyond fixing typos, isn’t a sort of beta test to see how Beyond players respond. I’d bet that a majority of players won’t even notice the changes, and will simply incorporate them into play the next time they look up a relevant ability in their digital character sheet.

I highly doubt that print D&D books are going anywhere for the foreseeable future. Unless D&D Beyond simply outcompetes print books entirely I doubt that they will stop printing D&D books for 5e. If they decide to instead make a new edition I would expect the early adopters of the new edition to largely be those who prefer print books.

Another case for print books is that if they want to make a new edition without print, then they'll need to first make the rules, then get them implemented in the online tool. The extra time combined with either losing control, buying a company or setting up competition to a partner is probably hard to justify.

If D&D Beyond kill the sale of print books and WotC buys the company behind D&D Beyond, then I can imagine print books being removed.

 

[OB1]

Another case for print books is that if they want to make a new edition without print, then they'll need to first make the rules, then get them implemented in the online tool. The extra time combined with either losing control, buying a company or setting up competition to a partner is probably hard to justify.

If D&D Beyond kill the sale of print books and WotC buys the company behind D&D Beyond, then I can imagine print books being removed.

I’m arguing that instead of a new edition, they will just stop print sales and make changes to an “evergreen” 5e via updates to the digital.

Again, as paper costs skyrocket over the next few years, it may no longer be economically viable to print 200+ page hardcovers, thus forcing WotC’s hand.

Part of the reason D&D books rank so high in Amazon sales is because most books are bought digitally now.

 

[clearstream]

I thought the Book of Nine Swords was the salvaging of the first scrapped attempt at fourth edition?

It's a different set of designers, isn't it?

It laid mechanical groundwork for 4th... but I didn't hear anything about it being a scrapped attempt at fourth. Can you reference anything to support that?

 

[Mercurius]

It seems to me that the best way for WotC to "sell more stuff" is to offer setting options for players and DMs in popular fictional universes, for example Harry Potter (who wouldn't buy the DMs Guide (and Players Handbook) to the World of Harry Potter), or heck tie in with Avatar (there's a bunch of probably mediocre movies coming out for that...) And of course many video game worlds. In fact there are 3 books to sell: Players Guide, DMs Guide (setting details + monsters), and introductory Level 1-10 adventures. 3 ~ 256 page books (maybe the players is only 128 - but really you could make it 256 with a bunch of nice art/pictures )

Now this will mean cutting the pie a couple more ways (for the licensing) - but Hasbro knows that business inside out.

In fact this is the way a movie tie-in should go IMHO: Loved <insert popular movie here>? Continue the fun with the official D&D compatible RPG "Adventures in <movie world>". Rather than WotC making their own mediocre movie, ride the pop culture coattails of someone else's!

First off, I wouldn't buy a HP D&D book because I'm not a fan of HP. But your point is taken: most people are, and given that I would love, say, an Earthsea D&D book, I get what you are saying.

Keep in mind that superhero movies used to be terrible too. All the way up to 2008. But they kept trying anyway and eventually they did it.

We now have a model for that sort of movie that works. I don't see why D&D can't just copy it.

Gonna have to disagree with this, as it is a very "MCU-centric" view. There have been plenty of good superhero movies well before 2008. While they're rather dated, the first couple Christopher Reeves Superman movies were quite good; the Keaton Batman movies (also dated) were very good. The first couple X-Men (especially X2) and first couple Tobey Maguire movies were all good.

But yeah, the MCU formula is a good one (although to be honest, I'm starting to grow a little tired of it and really enjoyed a re-watching of Batman v. Superman and its darker, more epic tone - not so much Justice League, which tried to "do an MCU").

I’m arguing that instead of a new edition, they will just stop print sales and make changes to an “evergreen” 5e via updates to the digital.

Again, as paper costs skyrocket over the next few years, it may no longer be economically viable to print 200+ page hardcovers, thus forcing WotC’s hand.

Part of the reason D&D books rank so high in Amazon sales is because most books are bought digitally now.

Or because $30 for a 300-page high quality hardcover that can be used for years and years is a fantastic deal, and Amazon sells in such quantity that they can make a killing with fractional mark-ups. So let's say your FLGS sells a PHB for $50 that they spent $30 on and makes $20; Amazon sells it for $30, and spent $25 on, so only makes $5, but $5 x 300,000 = $1.5 million.

Anyhow, you may be right that the digital version will become the core rule book. I haven't downloaded it yet, but didn't the new version of the Basic Rules have a jump in quality with some nice art-work? Maybe they're already laying the ground for this.

That said, people will always want print versions of the rules - at least as long as Gen Xers and Boomers are playing, which are some decades yet. Maybe Millenials--and more so, the younger "Gen Z"--as a group are OK with digital only, but I know Gen Xers aren't (again, as a group). Perhaps a hardcover will become more of a novelty product, and prices will go up so there will be fewer around, but hardcore fans will still have them.

 

[OB1]

That said, people will always want print versions of the rules - at least as long as Gen Xers and Boomers are playing, which are some decades yet. Maybe Millenials--and more so, the younger "Gen Z"--as a group are OK with digital only, but I know Gen Xers aren't (again, as a group). Perhaps a hardcover will become more of a novelty product, and prices will go up so there will be fewer around, but hardcore fans will still have them.

I think the last bit is right, just like film fanatics can find a few theatres that still show movies in 35mm, but 99% of moviegoers see films projected digitally.

When that $30/$50 hardcover becomes $90/$150 in a couple of years, it will make digital very attractive, and an absolute requirement for the hobby to continue to grow.

 

[Anthony Benassi]

Some quick thoughts, Nine Swords was an attempt to fix 3.5 not a scrapped 4th Edition, no one was really playing fighters since they where basically Magic Item repositories.

Reading through this Wizards has enough ammunition in the Dungeons and Dragons IP there's tons of opportunities to do Tales of The Yawning Portal type adventures, I think the fact that there's still demand for B Series, A Series and S Series adventures could these modules be introduced to a new generation in 5th edition formats. Not everything in the 1st and 2nd or 3rd edition era was great, but we have the luxury of hindsight to separate the Wheat from the Chaff.

Before I give up on Dead Trees as being an option, I think the growth of WOTC POD service for classic titles (and not just Dungeons and Dragons, but Boot Hill and Star Frontiers as well) shows that we can deal with limited demand for Print Products via Print on Demand services.

 

[Mercurius]

I think the last bit is right, just like film fanatics can find a few theatres that still show movies in 35mm, but 99% of moviegoers see films projected digitally.

When that $30/$50 hardcover becomes $90/$150 in a couple of years, it will make digital very attractive, and an absolute requirement for the hobby to continue to grow.

Do you really think print costs will triple "in a couple of years?" A couple is two...or are you being less literal and mean something like 5-20?

 

[Jester David]

Do you really think print costs will triple "in a couple of years?" A couple is two...or are you being less literal and mean something like 5-20?

I paid $50 for all three core rulebooks in 2003. $100 for 4e in 2008. And $150 in 2014.
So having them do an "inflation bump" of the books in a year or two wouldn't be beyond reason. Maybe to to $65 per book. But I imagine the digital price will grow as well.

 

[OB1]

Do you really think print costs will triple "in a couple of years?" A couple is two...or are you being less literal and mean something like 5-20?

I literally mean in a couple. I know it’s been predicted for 20+ years now, but mass print is very, very close to to death spiraling.