4.33 Years in: What Now for 5E? (and have we reached "Peak Edition?")

[robus]

I literally mean in a couple. I know it’s been predicted for 20+ years now, but mass print is very, very close to to death spiraling.

I would agree with except for the fact that global production has been consolidated into China, so their volumes are still very significant especially for large format books like these.

 

[Mercurius]

I paid $50 for all three core rulebooks in 2003. $100 for 4e in 2008. And $150 in 2014.
So having them do an "inflation bump" of the books in a year or two wouldn't be beyond reason. Maybe to to $65 per book. But I imagine the digital price will grow as well.

But that's a bit deceptive, because you could have paid $90 for all three in 2014, but you (presumably)bought from an FLGS.

If I remember correctly, the MSRPs of the PHB by edition were:

1E (1978): I think it started at $9.95 in the 70s but was $12.95 (?) by the time the orange spine version came out in 1983. I know this went up to $15 by 1987.
2E (1989): $20.00
3E (2000): $19.95
3.5E (2003): $29.95
4E (2008): $34.95
5E (2014): $49.95

Interesting to note that the MSRP of the 2E and 3E PHBs were the same, 11 years apart. Presumably printing costs went down? Or maybe the rise of the internet?

3.5 is partially inflated because it became a bigger book, or maybe 3.x was too cheaply priced.

That 4E to 5E jump is the most worrisome - that's a 42% mark-up in six years, or 7% per year. Isn't inflation on average about 2% per year? If the same pattern holds and 6E comes out in, say, 2024 for the 50th anniversary, that would would be 70% mark-up (7% per year) and an $85 MSRP.

On the other hand, if they go the evergreen route they'll have to do price increases more incrementally. And I suppose that also justifies a new print version, with new covers: maybe in a few years in 2020 or 2021, with a new list price of $59.95. Just a guess.

 

[robus]

@Mercurius - your quoting is getting a little out of control!

 

[Parmandur]

But that's a bit deceptive, because you could have paid $90 for all three in 2014, but you (presumably)bought from an FLGS.

If I remember correctly, the MSRPs of the PHB by edition were:

1E (1978): I think it started at $9.95 in the 70s but was $12.95 (?) by the time the orange spine version came out in 1983. I know this went up to $15 by 1987.
2E (1989): $20.00
3E (2000): $19.95
3.5E (2003): $29.95
4E (2008): $34.95
5E (2014): $49.95

Interesting to note that the MSRP of the 2E and 3E PHBs were the same, 11 years apart. Presumably printing costs went down? Or maybe the rise of the internet?

3.5 is partially inflated because it became a bigger book, or maybe 3.x was too cheaply priced.

That 4E to 5E jump is the most worrisome - that's a 42% mark-up in six years, or 7% per year. Isn't inflation on average about 2% per year? If the same pattern holds and 6E comes out in, say, 2024 for the 50th anniversary, that would would be 70% mark-up (7% per year) and an $85 MSRP.

On the other hand, if they go the evergreen route they'll have to do price increases more incrementally. And I suppose that also justifies a new print version, with new covers: maybe in a few years in 2020 or 2021, with a new list price of $59.95. Just a guess.

3.0 was priced as a loss leader. WotC donesn't do that anymore.

 

[Mercurius]

@Mercurius - your quoting is getting a little out of control!

Yeah, I went back and deleted old quotes. For some reason my browser retains old quote boxes - but only on this website. Weird.

 

[Mercurius]

3.0 was priced as a loss leader. WotC donesn't do that anymore.

Yeah, I remember that. They also did that 4E package of PHB 1 and 2 for the price of one, if I remember correctly.

 

[robus]

Yeah, I went back and deleted old quotes. For some reason my browser retains old quote boxes - but only on this website. Weird.

Did you know that there’s also a user named Mercurious? are you related?

 

[OB1]

But that's a bit deceptive, because you could have paid $90 for all three in 2014, but you (presumably)bought from an FLGS.

If I remember correctly, the MSRPs of the PHB by edition were:

1E (1978): I think it started at $9.95 in the 70s but was $12.95 (?) by the time the orange spine version came out in 1983. I know this went up to $15 by 1987.
2E (1989): $20.00
3E (2000): $19.95
3.5E (2003): $29.95
4E (2008): $34.95
5E (2014): $49.95

Interesting to note that the MSRP of the 2E and 3E PHBs were the same, 11 years apart. Presumably printing costs went down? Or maybe the rise of the internet?

3.5 is partially inflated because it became a bigger book, or maybe 3.x was too cheaply priced.

That 4E to 5E jump is the most worrisome - that's a 42% mark-up in six years, or 7% per year. Isn't inflation on average about 2% per year? If the same pattern holds and 6E comes out in, say, 2024 for the 50th anniversary, that would would be 70% mark-up (7% per year) and an $85 MSRP.

On the other hand, if they go the evergreen route they'll have to do price increases more incrementally. And I suppose that also justifies a new print version, with new covers: maybe in a few years in 2020 or 2021, with a new list price of $59.95. Just a guess.

It’s actually worse than that. Last year saw print costs increase about 12% and all signs are the increases will continue to accelerate. Innovation in print operations offset paper cost increases for a few years, but it’s looking like the market has squeezed out all the efficiencies it can and with so much print operating at razor thin margins, price increases will get passed to end users which will lead to more and more consumers choosing digital over physical leading to further collapse of the print industry.

 

[ad_hoc]

It's important to look at what things cost in general today.

(Prices in CAD but close enough)

1 Boardgame - $60-80
1 AAA Videogame - $60-80
1 Ticket to a show (concert, theatre, circus, etc) - $60-120
2 Movie tickets and concessions - $50
2 Meals at a restaurant - $50+


Everything is expensive. People still buy them.

 

[robus]

It’s actually worse than that. Last year saw print costs increase about 12% and all signs are the increases will continue to accelerate. Innovation in print operations offset paper cost increases for a few years, but it’s looking like the market has squeezed out all the efficiencies it can and with so much print operating at razor thin margins, price increases will get passed to end users which will lead to more and more consumers choosing digital over physical leading to further collapse of the print industry.

What is driving these cost increases? The only thing I can think is paper? is that actually becoming resource constrained?

Edit: my google-fu must be off because I couldn’t find any dire articles on the near future of printing...?