4.33 Years in: What Now for 5E? (and have we reached "Peak Edition?")

[GreyLord]

Haven't read the thread yet, just my initial response to the OP question.

I don't think 5e has hit it's "peak" yet.

In regards to 2e, when talking about peaks are we talking when the most money was being made or when it published the most books?
For Money, I'd say it actually peaked far earlier than the mid-90s. I'd say the peak was probably around 92 or 93. It was bringing in around 100 million USD (so something like 200 million in todays dollars?) at that time...up from around 90 million a short time prior to that. By 95 that numbers was starting to crash...HARD.

With that in mind, depending on how one plays it, 5e has a LOOOONG way to peak money wise if one can play it smart.

Though some have pegged 1e making anywhere from 23 million to FAR MORE than that, there are those that would say that it was FAR more POPULAR than 2e during it's peak. I'd put that peak as others have said around 83.

If it was making more than 2e was in the early 90s (though there are MANY that would contest this idea), then we are looking at a HUGE amount of possibilities for 5e.

I don't think it's reached all the areas it can go yet and there are many various avenues it can be stretched to expand how much money it brings in. I don't think it is impossible to think that it could reach monetary heights larger than MtG IF (and that is a BIG IF) the right minds figure how to expand the audience, the right timing is there to help it expand the merchandise that can be sold, AND a great deal of luck.

Either way, I don't think (or maybe it's just hope) that it has a ways to go before hitting it's "peak"

 

[Mercurius]

 

[GreyLord]

What is driving these cost increases? The only thing I can think is paper? is that actually becoming resource constrained?

Edit: my google-fu must be off because I couldn’t find any dire articles on the near future of printing...?

Depends on where and what you are looking at.

Inflation of a product does not necessarily reflect that set by a Federal Reserve or other organization. Inflation happens relevant to the market. Prices have been stagnant for YEARS in some areas of the market...that they finally would see at least a little rebound of that static price is not unreasonable.

An inflation of 4-6% is not unusual (though sometimes more, sometimes less, depends on the industry), it depends on what is happening and what is going on. This maybe why (getting a little off topic here) the wages in the US in some ways have not kept up with inflation in the US economy in general. The same could apply to some Banks in that pegging inflation or rise of wages and costs to a government statement or other organization rather than how the market reacts can put you behind or in front of the curve.

 

[delericho]

If I remember correctly, the MSRPs of the PHB by edition were:

A few years ago (in the run up to 5e), I dug out the MSRPs:

http://www.enworld.org/forum/showth...D-Editions-then-and-now&p=6272427#post6272427

Interesting to note that the MSRP of the 2E and 3E PHBs were the same, 11 years apart. Presumably printing costs went down? Or maybe the rise of the internet?

The first printing of the 3e core books (and only the first printing) was sold at near-cost. With the second printing those rose to $30 each.

The reason for this was two-fold: they wanted to make it as attractive as possible to get people to switch, and they were also conscious that there was a lot of suspicion of WotC out there at that time (3e was, of course, the first edition done by "the Magic guys" after they bought out TSR).

That 4E to 5E jump is the most worrisome - that's a 42% mark-up in six years, or 7% per year. Isn't inflation on average about 2% per year?

It was an above-inflation jump. I think the theory* at that time was that they'd somehow priced in the Amazon discount (so that $50 was 'really' $30 or something). I'm not sure how valid that is - it might also be a reflection of the fact that this edition doesn't have the plethora of supplements.

* A theory based on not much at all, of course - I don't think WotC ever told us exactly why they chose those particular prices. After all, why would they?

If the same pattern holds and 6E comes out in, say, 2024 for the 50th anniversary, that would would be 70% mark-up (7% per year) and an $85 MSRP.

There's probably one or more 'sweet spots' for book pricing, and there's probably some really clever people with spreadsheets who can project what they are. I wouldn't be at all surprised if $20, $30, and $50 are all points in a sequence, with the next one at... well, I don't know.

But I wouldn't be surprised to find that the MSRP of 6e isn't determined by inflation so much as some other pseudo-psychological reason.

 

[ad_hoc]

On Amazon right now in USD:

PHB: $23
MM: $21
DMG: $40
Starter Set: $12

Is this the most inexpensive edition?

 

[Mouseferatu]

There are many authors who make a living off ebooks. Some of them are literally rich.

That really depends on your definition of "many." The percentage of authors who make a living off e-books (or books at all) is tiny. There's a reason most authors have non-writing jobs, or are married to someone who does.

The number who actually get rich is a fraction of a fraction of a percent.

 

[Azzy]

That really depends on your definition of "many." The percentage of authors who make a living off e-books (or books at all) is tiny. There's a reason most authors have non-writing jobs, or are married to someone who does.

The number who actually get rich is a fraction of a fraction of a percent.

Oh, like you would know, Ari.

 

[generic]

On Amazon right now in USD:

PHB: $23
MM: $21
DMG: $40
Starter Set: $12

Is this the most inexpensive edition?

5e is, in fact, the most expensive edition (by listed MSRP) of any edition. However, because of the effects of mild inflation and Amazon pricing, it cannot be considered the most or least expensive edition if you purchase books on Amazon (many people bought their 1e PHBs for $9.75). If you purchase books at their MSRP (in a game store), then 5e is the most expensive edition.