D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[OB1]

It's not just being in a franchise, it's what you did, and how recent/hot the franchise is. Michelle Rodriguez is primarily known for the Furious films, but not as a lead. In terms of large franchises, Pine is known as a lead for the rebooted Star Trek films, which are a second tier franchise, and for a co-starring (but not really) role in the Wonder Woman films. Pine would be a significant lead, but at the same time he's not Duane Johnson, Robert Downey Jr., etc. Hugh Grant has had a stellar career but folks who go to this sort of film aren't going because they need to see Hugh Grant.

There's big names and there's Big Names. None of these are names that move the dial a ton when it comes to opening weekend box office. In Hollywood terms, they aren't that bankable (truly bankable stars are a short list).

Well Robert Downey Jr wasn't a big name when he launched Iron Man, he was a washed up 80s actor. Iron Man made him a Big Name.

The thing is, outside of Tom Cruise, there aren't really bankable actors anymore (look at how Black Adam performed with the Rock starring). That said, having recognizable names in a new franchise can help (like RDj did with Iron Man), and Pine, Rodriguez, Grant and even Sophia Lilas are that. They don't drive the box office for people who aren't otherwise interested in the film, but they give a kind of reassurance that the film has some people who are Hollywood regulars as a kind of seal of approval.

I wonder how many Trek fans there are compared to D&D fans? The reboot had a solid $75M opening ($375 Worldwide total). Or how many Captain America fans there were prior to 2011 (also a $75M open and $385 Worldwide total)?

And I can't overstate this point enough, if the prognosticators are thinking that D&D is male centric, they haven't been paying attention to the trends over the last 8 years. My wife now runs a bi-weekly game that consists of 7 women and 2 men, and the ladies are already planning on all going to see the film when it comes out. If that's too anecdotal, take a look at Crit Role fandom. Pine, Grant and Rodriguez are all popular with female moviegoers, and the trailers all show women kicking butt.

I don't know that D&D will get to a $75M opening, but I'd place a serious bet that it opens over $40M.

 

[Clint_L]

I don't see much point in arguing about whether stars should be considered bankable or not. I'm just pointing out that in the industry that he works in, Pine is not considered one of the top 50 or so bankable stars. Also, having a "bankable star" doesn't mean your film will be a hit, it just means that you are estimated to have increased the receipts significantly over what they would have been (e.g. Black Adam would have done worse without the Rock). It's all estimates, but it is true that films are a major industry predicated on minimizing risk, so the folks who work in that business likely have a lot more knowledge about what sells and what doesn't than we do, even if this means that they wind up making a lot of crappy, predictable films. I'm not defending it - it is what it is.

Regardless, I hope Chris Pine is great in the film and it makes big money!

 

[Blackwarder]

I hope it will be a 1,000,000,000$ phenomenom.
I’m afraid it’s going to be the same crap we’ve been given over last couple of years, the kind of crap not even the most talented of actors would be able to correct.

Chris Pine is an amazing actor IMHO, I hope he will be to the DnDCU what Robert Downey junior was to the MCU, but I don’t think the writers and director will let him be so.

Fingers crossed that I’m wrong.

 

[Zardnaar]

I hope it will be a 1,000,000,000$ phenomenom.
I’m afraid it’s going to be the same crap we’ve been given over last couple of years, the kind of crap not even the most talented of actors would be able to correct.

Chris Pine is an amazing actor IMHO, I hope he will be to the DnDCU what Robert Downey junior was to the MCU, but I don’t think the writers and director will let him be so.

Fingers crossed that I’m wrong.

Pines not really in same league as RDJ though.

Before Iron Man he was amazing actor. Pine isn't. He's not bad or anything but not in same league as RDJ.

 

[payn]

Pines not really in same league as RDJ though.

Before Iron Man he was amazing actor. Pine isn't. He's not bad or anything but not in same league as RDJ.

I think folks are selling Pine short. He's a great actor he just hasn't been in a really great movie yet. Probably isn't going to be this D&D movie either, but this is what Pine has done for better or worse in his career.

 

[Zardnaar]

I think folks are selling Pine short. He's a great actor he just hasn't been in a really great movie yet. Probably isn't going to be this D&D movie either, but this is what Pine has done for better or worse in his career.

He's not a bad actor but any means but Chris Pine lead movies outside of Trek don't tend to do that well.

Which implies people went for the franchise vs him.

So I think a lot of people over estimate his draw power.

 

[bedir than]

Looking into other Daley and Goldstein projects, it would seem that those projections sites think this will be the first of theirs to bomb. They have a fairly long history of things that dramatically perform over the budget+50% threshold across several genres.

 

[mamba]

Looking into other Daley and Goldstein projects, it would seem that those projections sites think this will be the first of theirs to bomb. They have a fairly long history of things that dramatically perform over the budget+50% threshold across several genres.

Ugh, hadn't looked into who they are, but their track record with me is far from good... Horrible Bosses (2011), The Incredible Burt Wonderstone (2013), Horrible Bosses 2 (2014), and the fifth film in the National Lampoon's Vacation film series, Vacation (2015). This is a rather disappointing list from my perspective, the only one that gives me any hope is Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) where they were involved with other screenwriters.

 

[payn]

Ugh, hadn't looked into who they are, but their track record with me is far from good... Horrible Bosses (2011), The Incredible Burt Wonderstone (2013), Horrible Bosses 2 (2014), and the fifth film in the National Lampoon's Vacation film series, Vacation (2015). This is a rather disappointing list from my perspective, the only one that gives me any hope is Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) where they were involved with other screenwriters.

While these movies are not necessarily what I would call great, they are pretty excellent ensemble movies of the comedy style. Whether that translates well to a D&D fantasy story will be the test. I think it will have broad appeal, but limited to the action comedy genre. Some D&D fans will be disappointed that the movie is not deadly serious, but they will go see it anyway.

 

[bedir than]

Ugh, hadn't looked into who they are, but their track record with me is far from good... Horrible Bosses (2011), The Incredible Burt Wonderstone (2013), Horrible Bosses 2 (2014), and the fifth film in the National Lampoon's Vacation film series, Vacation (2015). This is a rather disappointing list from my perspective, the only one that gives me any hope is Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) where they were involved with other screenwriters.

Horrible Bosses made 209 off less than 40
Horrible Bosses 2 was 109 off 42
Incredible Burt Wonderstone did poorly with 27 off 34. Ouch. I thought it was indie film the first time I looked it up.
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 made 274 off 78
Vacation (2018) hit 107 off 31
Game Night 117 on 37
Vacation 6 I can't find data on, probably because of the pandemic

I'm skipping Spidey, because MCU throws expectations way off.

They've laid one budget egg and gotten more than four times budget on multiple occasions.

Predictors expecting a bomb (usually because of the 2000 film) aren't paying attention to the writer/directors history, to the cast's history or to the modern game of D&D which is in a peak higher than ever before.

An individual may not like or enjoy the film, but the data doesn't support Honor Among Thieves bombing out