Death and Dying trial rules... when do you die?

[MerricB]

I've just done a little mathematical analysis of when a character can be expected to die using the trial "Death & Dying" rules.

The computer program I used to calculate it seems to be a little lossy, but anyway...

Round 1: 5% ok; 95% dying
Round 2: 10% ok; 90% dying
Round 3: 14% ok; 77% dying; 9% dead
Round 4: 18% ok; 59% dying; 23% dead
Round 5: 21% ok; 43% dying; 36% dead
Round 6: 22% ok; 29% dying; 48% dead
Round 7: 23% ok; 19% dying; 56% dead
Round 8: 24% ok; 12% dying; 62% dead
Round 9: 24% ok; 7% dying; 66% dead.

The limit it's moving towards is that 27% of PCs who are knocked into the negatives will recover on their own, and 73% of them will die (assuming no extra healing).

These numbers are probably different in 4e, but that's how the trial rules work.

(EDIT: fixed the probabilities; mistakenly thought it was 11-19: "No change")

Cheers!

 

[Chris_Nightwing]

Cross posting! It's just a question of forming the transitional probability matrix and raising to the power you're interested in:

Time / Recovered / Died

3 rds later / 0.143 / 0.091
4 rds / 0.181 / 0.228
5 rds / 0.211 / 0.365
6 rds / 0.232 / 0.478
7 rds / 0.246 / 0.564
8 rds / 0.256 / 0.624
9 rds / 0.262 / 0.664
10 rds / 0.266 / 0.689

And so on..

Oh and to add: the limit is 27.1% recover vs. 72.9% dead.

 

[FireLance]

Cross posting! It's just a question of forming the transitional probability matrix and raising to the power you're interested in:

Time / Recovered / Died

3 rds later / 0.143 / 0.091
4 rds / 0.181 / 0.228
5 rds / 0.211 / 0.365
6 rds / 0.232 / 0.478
7 rds / 0.246 / 0.564
8 rds / 0.256 / 0.624
9 rds / 0.262 / 0.664
10 rds / 0.266 / 0.689

And so on..

Oh and to add: the limit is 27.1% recover vs. 72.9% dead.

I got these results too.

 

[MerricB]

Fixed initial post; thanks Chris.

 

[Chris_Nightwing]

Your numbers are interesting still! If the 3e rule they've suggested is slightly tweaked, for instance, and in fact you make a miniatures-style saving throw each round (with the special 20 result) then 11-19 would be no change. If they united the mechanic, I'd be even happier!

 

[Peter LaCara]

Your numbers are interesting still! If the 3e rule they've suggested is slightly tweaked, for instance, and in fact you make a miniatures-style saving throw each round (with the special 20 result) then 11-19 would be no change. If they united the mechanic, I'd be even happier!

I will point you to the DDM saving throw table:

d20 Roll Result
1-9 Effect Continues
10-19 Effect Ends
20 Effect Ends, along with any other effect that allows a save.

So the mechanic is unified already.

 

[Chris_Nightwing]

I will point you to the DDM saving throw table:

d20 Roll Result
1-9 Effect Continues
10-19 Effect Ends
20 Effect Ends, along with any other effect that allows a save.

So the mechanic is unified already.

Cool! Super-awesome! I hadn't actually got around to reading the full DDM rules and had assumed it was just a 50-50 recover/continue. The dying mechanic table makes much more sense now.

 

[Irda Ranger]

Oh and to add: the limit is 27.1% recover vs. 72.9% dead.

Wow, a better than one-in-four chance of spontaneous recovery? Does that seem high to anyone?

 

[Anthtriel]

Wow, a better than one-in-four chance of spontaneous recovery? Does that seem high to anyone?

It only applies to heroes, and it's a lot harsher than my personal "You die only when you want to"-rule, so it's fine by me. It's certainly nothing you could rely on. Even if you get a bonus to saving throws from somewhere, you still only recover on a natural 20, right?

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

Wow, a better than one-in-four chance of spontaneous recovery? Does that seem high to anyone?

Due to the high chance of death compared to 3E, not really:
In 3E, with the 10 % stabilizing rule per round, there is a chance of ~59 % to die after 5 rounds! And thus a 41 % chance to stabilize (but no spontaneous recovery, admittedly)
At high levels, your chances for spontanous recovery suddenly increase, if you're "accidently" in the area of a Mass Cure spell...