D&D Movie/TV Guess the D&D Movie Opening Weekend Box Office Performance, and Win a Prize!

[FitzTheRuke]

Between Hollywood Accounting and the state of movie reporting on the internet, we get everything from "Top Movie in the World" to "Total Flop" (and everything in between).

 

[bedir than]

Out only four days, D&D is the #9 movie of 2023 already. It will move up one or two slots over the next weekend, even if it does extraordinarily poorly. There's a small chance it passes Shazam2.
Unless it does extraordinarily well in week two its total will be passed by Super Mario, so it's highly unlikely that Honor Among Thieves cracks the top 5 of 2023 in week two.

 

[mamba]

The published expectations were prior to any tickets being sold

of course, if you think the first time a movie studio has an idea of how well a movie will probably do is from early ticket sales, then you are mistaken…not sure how that is supposed to change anything I said

 

[Umbran]

2. Box-office profitability.

Is also a (very loose) proxy for the number of tickets sold. That, combined with audience ratings, gets you an idea of whether this has worked in terms of this being an overall-brand booster.

 

[Zardnaar]

Sure!

I'm talking about the people here who are insisting that the movie has failed when it did better than what the studio expected it to do (per the studio leaks weeks prior).

That's not about Hollywood math. That's about D&D fans on this forum hating on things

It wasn't studio expectations. They would want as much money as possible.

A few days before it launched was when the indusyry expectations came out that we're using. Industry expectations weren't that great.

John Wick by comparison made its budget back X2 in its second week.

D&D will only make its budget week 3 or 4 with a very optimistic 30% decline. If the decline is 70% the movies pretty much done.

Minimum it needs around 300 million and
that's assuming it's 151 million cost includes its marketing budget.

Hollywood accounting can't really do anything about its box office take. It's more for tax reasons or who gets what.

If the movie doesn't make 300 million or even 200 million other its more about who loses what. Actual loses might ne lower die to tax write offs but they may have spent 150 million but only get 100 million on revenue. Someone's taking a dunking on that.

 

[ad_hoc]

I enjoyed the movie and wish it had a bigger opening weekend - I want it to do well because I want a sequel. Not that this was a terrible opening weekend, but it does reveal the relative weakness of the brand in the public consciousness - everyone might know what D&D is in broad terms, but it is still a niche hobby that doesn't immediately shout "you need to see this!" to the average movie-goer.

It is interesting to compare this film's opening to what happens with the Super Mario movie. Both are based on popular game franchises and both are following much-maligned predecessor films. The D&D film had great early reviews and advanced screening, but will struggle to pass $40 million on its opening. The Super Mario movie only just lifted its embargo on early reactions (largely positive, but early reactions are basically always largely positive) and still doesn't have official reviews out, yet is tracking north of $125 million for this weekend. That's a brand!

Hopefully Honour Among Thieves garners enough to earn a sequel and builds a following through streaming services. It's a quality film, so I think it will get plenty of attention when folks can watch it for free at home.

This was true of Marvel movies until the MCU.

Everyone knew who the superheroes were and the 2000 X-Men did well but they weren't huge movies.

I think the test will be what the 2nd and 3rd movie make.

 

[ad_hoc]

Sure!

I'm talking about the people here who are insisting that the movie has failed when it did better than what the studio expected it to do (per the studio leaks weeks prior).

That's not about Hollywood math. That's about D&D fans on this forum hating on things

Yeah. There are still people who say that 5e is a failure. I just expect it.

 

[Henadic Theologian]

wait, is it UK and Canada or US and Canada?

and based on that I considered it a pretty even split

Oddly it UK and Canada, US goes to Paramount, no way Paramount gives up the US.

 

[bedir than]

Oddly it UK and Canada, US goes to Paramount, no way Paramount gives up the US.

Those are eOne's legacy territories. Pepa the Pig, etc

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Exactly this. Compared to films like Uncharted and Dune (which both opened in low 40Ms and got sequels), D&D is doing okay, and Hasbro's investment in the film is def more about lifting the D&D brand than having this movie be profitable on it's own (though it still could be!)

Uncharted is getting a sequel?

Haven't we been through enough these last few years?