ICv2 Reports Disappointing Year For Hobby Games Channel: TTRPGs Down, D&D Declines 30%

According to ICv2, 2023 was a tough year for hobby game sales. The US and Canada market increased by just 1%, which was less than the rate of inflation, growing from $2.86 billion in 2022 to $2.89 billion in 2023.

The hobby game sales channel is defined as specialist game and card stores--it doesn't include Amazon, direct sales, etc. It does include Kickstarter.

Top Hobby Channel TTRPGs (2023)

1. Dungeons & Dragons (WotC)
2. Pathfinder (Paizo)
3. Cyberpunk Red (R. Talsorian)
4. World of Darkness (Renegade Game Studios)
5. Starfinder (Paizo)
6. Warhammer 40K (Cubicle 7)
7. Marvel Multiverse Roleplaying (Marvel)
8. Kobold 5E Books (Kobold Press)
9. Call of Cthulhu (Chaosium)
10. Pirate Borg (Free League)

The only two categories to grow in 2023 were collectibles and miniatures. All other categories--board games, card games, and roleplaying games--were down. ICv2 reports a 30% hobby store sales decline for Dungeons & Dragons specifically, citing the impending new edition and lackluster movie performance, and the tail end of a pandemic-fuelled high; they also report that while the OGL crisis of last year impacted some lifestyle gamers, newer players as a whole were oblivious to the situation. The other important element ICv2 mentioned was D&D's increasing move to digital, which impacted retail sales.

Older D&D players, says ICv2, are also migrating to other games, with Pathfinder as one of the major beneficiaries.

The last 6 years has seen much larger growth rates--partly fuelled by the pandemic--ranging from 10% to 30%. 2022 saw a 7% growth over 2021. Despite the small increase, 2023 represents the 15th year of growth for the overall market. ICv2 does predict a market decline in 2024, though.

ICv2 conducts periodical surveys and speaks to publishers, distributors, and retailers, along with publicly available company information and Kickstarter data.

 

[MacDhomnuill]

Well, the economy is experienced a downturn, so we can be fairly confident that that will take a bite out of the whole.

Plus major new edition of 40k and a half dozen new games from GW is surely behind the miniatures numbers. I wonder if kickstarter “sales” get rolled up into this as well.

 

[aramis erak]

Plus major new edition of 40k and a half dozen new games from GW is surely behind the miniatures numbers. I wonder if kickstarter “sales” get rolled up into this as well.

Probably not, especially given that when I hit the button I had a message noting that neither the creator nor kickstarter guarantee any product will be received in exchange for backing.

 

[MNblockhead]

Apparently, the overwhelming majority of people buying and playing Magic never even set foot in a FLGS: most cards are sold at grocery or drug stores.

In my area Target is probably the main retailer for MtG. MtG became so popular in my son's school (a charter school with both a grade and middle school in one large building) that the school had to put rules in place and send out notices against trading cards in school (some parents were getting upset at their kids getting suckered into bad trades). Out of just the group of my sons friends, probably only me and one other dad have ever set foot in a FLGS. But all the Targets in the area have shelves of MtG cards in the toy and game section and they have a large display of MtG card right by checkout as well. I haven't noticed them in grocery or drug stores. I expect they are there, but Target gives them premium shelf space and are really pushing the cardboard crack. Out of the large group of friends that my son has played MtG, only he and one friend have ever gone to a MtG event at a FLGS.

 

[MNblockhead]

You know that retail stores have staff they need to pay, right? It isn't WotC or Amazon killing stores, it is you.

Amazon acts as a distributor. That is how they are able to cut 30% off the price of the book.

Look, I am not saying that people have to pay the retail MSRP+ but if they don't they really can't complain that they don't have a FLGS anymore.

The value of a FLGS to me is no longer as a retailer primarily--at least in regards to TTRPGs. The only FLGS that I've found are worth visiting as a TTRPG fan are those that focus on providing a good venue to play games and build community. So, while I buy few books at a FLGS or any brick and mortar store, I do regularly spend money to rent a table or room. That's what brings me into a FLGS and keeps me coming back. And since I am in the store, I am much more likely to buy a game to have it now. But I'm not going to go driving to FLGS just to shop. Especially for TTRPGs. I recently posted about finding my new go-to FLGS for TTRPGs after moving to a new city in another thread. FLGS need to change their business models to stay relevant in the TTRPG market.

 

[Jd Smith1]

I wonder about the financial demographics of the hobby.

College kids have been a mainstay in many areas, and the cost of college being what it is, I wonder if that could account for some of the damage. In addition, early 20s are a sizeable group, and these days of high rent and low wages might see that group throttling back.

 

[mamba]

I wonder if kickstarter “sales” get rolled up into this as well.

the second paragraph of the OP answers that

The hobby game sales channel is defined as specialist game and card stores--it doesn't include Amazon, direct sales, etc. It does include Kickstarter.

 

[Autumnal]

I point this out a few times a year because my conscience would bug me if I didn’t, not because I expect it to help, but…

There is genuinely no reason to take ICV2 numbers seriously. Their methodology is “we talked to some well-connected folks and looked at info from publicly traded companies”. Those are things worth doing, but authoritative accounts they are not.

There are several peopl in this thread who are also well co. Texted, and more around the site. Any of us could get public company data. Note that ICV2 never even claimed to use actual store sales, back when that was their primary source, only the impressions of people working at the stores about what was moving best. They haven’t gotten any more rigorous.

How many folks own or run game stores hang out at EN World these days? I know it’s several, but now how much several. Half a size. Such folks giving hard data from their stores - and not even actual numbers, just a verified ranking and maybe percent of #1 or something - would be as much of a contribution.

Poke at their info as seems wise (and fun), but remember its limits and down get too worked up or brung down.

 

[teitan]

I'm pleasantly surprised by Marvel's new game doing decently, I had thought it was a weaker game sales wise but seems to be holding its own.

 

[Li Shenron]

... citing the impending new edition and lackluster movie performance, and the tail end of a pandemic-fuelled high... The other important element ICv2 mentioned was D&D's increasing move to digital, which impacted retail sales.​

The revised 2024 edition might have had an effect of making gamers skip purchases in order to wait and see how compatible it really is, or just because they are anticipating having to spend to buy new core books again, but this would be seen also in online sales. The other explanations don't convince me as much. I don't see why the movie results should significantly negatively affect sales. Maybe someone who could have bought the books watched the movie first and decided not to buy them? Unconvincing. The 'increasingly move to digital' also isn't really that fast. A physiological decrease after the highs of previous years makes more sense, but again it should affect online sales as well. A yearly 30% decrease is huge, it can't be a single factor, but maybe inflation hurt retail stores more than online stores. Also, at least around here, brick and mortar gaming stores have failed to offer competitive prices and bonus/discounts promotions since many many years, it's hard to see why younger people wouldn't just go to the stores to browse products and then buy them online for significantly lower prices.

 

[TheSword]

I think Year on Year comparisons only get you so far. Particularly when there are big shifts occurring. If the D&D range was up 40% the previous year because of a spike, then being down 30% the next is no big deal. You have to look at the overall trend.

It’s also important to recognize books sales doesn’t necessarily match growth in players. We could still be seeing player growth even if there is a decline in sales because there haven’t been any major releases.