It is coming and we are all doomed!!!

[Hussar]

I wonder if the profusion of alternative/variant rule system (PHBII, Tome of Magic, complete mage...) could be related to the old skill and power release, who could have been labeled 2.5. It looks like wizards test a lot of new ideas and concept, and will let them "float" around so that they can build the next improved edition with it.

Plus, it will ease the transition, because people will be accustomed to the new rules, somewhat.

That's a bit of a stretch. Unearthed Arcana has been out for what, two years? Alternative rules have been coming out of WOTC at about the same time as "core" rules. Granted, there seems to be some evolution - the use of CR as a mechanic seems to be cropping up here and there - but, I'm not sure that we can point to variant rules. The Options books for 2e came out pretty late in the game, same as the original Unearthed Arcana. 3e has seen far more varient books much sooner. Particularly from the d20 blokes.

And, I think the idea that the AP will be a marker is a good one. The AP's have been hugely successful. Think about it, what adventure from Dungeon has ever seen reprint? Dungeon's been a going concern for what, 15, 20 years? Shackled City is the first time we've seen hardcover Dungeon adventures. That says to me, at least, that they've been extremely successful.

I'm thinking we won't see 4e announced until Gen Con 2008 and then released shortly thereafter with a new AP for 4e on its heels. That would be a very big impetus for buying the new game.

 

[Staffan]

I wonder if the profusion of alternative/variant rule system (PHBII, Tome of Magic, complete mage...) could be related to the old skill and power release, who could have been labeled 2.5. It looks like wizards test a lot of new ideas and concept, and will let them "float" around so that they can build the next improved edition with it.

I think a bigger indicator that they're beginning to think about 4e is the "Developer's corner" (or whatever it's called) feature on the website, where designers and developers are talking about things they don't like about the system and, in some cases, where they think they've made things better. In addition to being an interesting web feature in itself, it feels like a good way to probe for what people think of the system as it exists, pointing out what the players like and don't like.