D&D 5E Monte Cook working on 5E?

[Mark CMG]

If they are indeed gearing up for the next "revision", I still think that 2014 would make a lot of sense, for the whole 40th anniversary thing...

That would have an interesting symbiosis to it. As long as their profits are good enough, they can probably stretch it out that long or longer. Still, they're already cancelling books from the schedule and such so I'm not sure that's the case. How has the boardgame push been going? Can they convince the bean counters that they don't need a new edition for three years and to pay staff to work on one for that long?

 

[delericho]

I've already been wrong about 5e; I expected it to be announced at GenCon this year.

I think the hiring of Monte is a fairly good sign that the 'go' button has been pushed on 5e development. Initially, I extrapolated from that to an announcement at GenCon 2012 and release June 2013. However, I have since seen a very strong argument that 2014 is a more likely date: not only does that allow 2 years development plus 1 year of hype, but 2014 is also the 40th anniversary. The stars would seem to align then.

I would therefore not be at all surprised to see:

5e being announced at GenCon 2013, for a June 2014 release.

5e not actually being called "5th Edition", but rather "Anniversary Edition".

5e being the last edition of D&D, at least as we recognise it, and certainly the last edition in print.

 

[vagabundo]

Consider what's been happening lately I'd be sceptical of rumours stating he is NOT working on 5e.

Really it's a given that he is working on 5e.

 

[Aberzanzorax]

I don't see the rationale for waiting until 2014 to hit the 40 year mark.


They'll make decisions based on projected profitablility, the market, etc. etc.

I don't think they'll make more money by releasing it concurrently with the anniversary.



Instead, I think (and hope) we'll see an anniversary product or products. Maybe a D&D retrospective (history of, quotes from designers, that sort of thing). Maybe also a "crunch through the ages" to complement that book, discussing different editions, offering conversion tools and strategies, including perhaps a module or mini module from each edition, or if 5e goes modular, perhaps the same module played with various "mods" and discussion of which edition which mods make it feel like.

The reason I think the above is twofold. One, I don't think they'll put off 5e if they think it can reinvigorate their market. Two, and this is even MORE important...If, as in most edition cycles, sales start to slow about a year in, they can re-invigorate the 5e market with the 40 year anniversary especially with those two products I envisioned (they'd be like advertisements, but, if done well, advertisements I would buy).

I predict June 2013 for release of 5e. I also predict some sort of retrospective 40th anniversary product meant to honor d&d but also to showcase 5e to us grognards.



Hell, one last prediction. On the 40th anniversary of D&D they make the old edition products available again. This will be especially true if my two other predictions are correct ... and if 5e is modular enough to play older editions. That way 5e is released soon enough to not compete with older editions, but then a year later (once most people who are going to buy the core books and try the game have done so) they release the older edition stuff that is somehow all playable with various subsets of 5e mods.

It's about the only way I can see to recapture the splintered market, and would simultaneously garner them massive goodwill.

 

[Mercurius]

Actually, it might make more sense to come out with 5E in 2013 and then, if it bombs, release "retro-editions" in 2014 in a desperate attempt to win back the disgruntled. If 5E does well, they could still release retro-editions but it would be more as a celebration of 40 years of D&D, rather than a last-ditch effort to save a sinking ship.

In other words, 5E in 2013 gives WotC one more chance (the 40th anniversary) to do right by the community. If they wait until 2014, they're putting all their eggs in one basket.

Furthermore, given the recent and current publication schedule, I just don't see another two and a half years of this. It feels too much like a waiting period--let's release just enough product to keep people interested, but not so much that we're committing to a game that we're going to be publishing for years to come.

Even another year and a half seems a lot, but a June, 2013 release wouldn't really be another year - if there is a GenCon 2012 release, from September to June could involve previews, open playtesting, teasers, etc. So we'd really be talking about 11 more months of the current status quo. That makes more sense to me than almost two years of this.

 

[Bedrockgames]

I am not certain how much a 5e would help WotC at this point.

I won't say 'they are dead to me', or even 'I'm done with them', but I will say that I am happy with Pathfinder right now, and I don't expect that to change in the next few years.

I am certain that there are plenty of folks who feel exactly the same way about 4e - they are happy with it, and will still be happy with it in two years time. I am willing to believe that it might well be a majority of the 4e fans.

Would shortening the cycle help WotC?

*EDIT* To be clear - I mean at this point, not 'for the foreseeable future'. That maybe they would be better off waiting a while longer.

The Auld Grump

As someone who was really turned off by 4E, I would definitely give 5E a chance now that monte is on board. But it depends on what they do with it. If it is a lot more like 3E, but with some of the spells toned down and some of the crazy builds out of the mix, I'd go for it. If they jettison the healing surges, the 4E powers system and go back to the old class structure, I'd buy it and play.

 

[DEFCON 1]

I am not certain how much a 5e would help WotC at this point.

Would shortening the cycle help WotC?

If 5E books produce more sales than any potential new 4E book would, then of course it will help.

What many people don't seem to understand or want to think is true is that there are many of us who just buy games. And we don't care if they are completely new brands, or new editions of existing brands. Games are games. If there's a fifth iteration of the D&D brand out there, then sure, we'll pick it up, because it'd be fun and interesting to look at and potentially play. And it doesn't mean it's because we've "given up" on a previous edition... it just means that it's a NEW GAME to buy.

It's the same way that if there was a new Mutants & Masterminds book on the shelf, we'd pick it up. Or a new Cthulu. Or a new Shadowrun. Or the newest Warhammer ruleset. While some people would claim that "you're fracturing the fanbase!"... that's only a statement that has any weight if most/all of the RPG community actually only played one game at the expense of all others. And I for one do not believe that is the case. Many of us have room in our shelves for multiple games. And if a completely new edition is more interesting that another supplement to an existing game that we already own umpteen supplements for already... we'll most certainly buy it, because it'd be more fun and more interesting to read and play and the best reason to spend our money.

And if there are enough people like that... then those are people any company would be smart to cater to.

 

[Wednesday Boy]

I am not certain how much a 5e would help WotC at this point.

I won't say 'they are dead to me', or even 'I'm done with them', but I will say that I am happy with Pathfinder right now, and I don't expect that to change in the next few years.

I am certain that there are plenty of folks who feel exactly the same way about 4e - they are happy with it, and will still be happy with it in two years time. I am willing to believe that it might well be a majority of the 4e fans.

That's what I think as well except I prefer 4E over 3.x/PF. I will certainly give a fair shake to whatever edition comes out next but I won't get drawn in simply because it's a new edition--I'll have to like it more than 4E.

5e being the last edition of D&D, at least as we recognise it...

What do you have in mind?

 

[ggroy]

I don't see the rationale for waiting until 2014 to hit the 40 year mark.


They'll make decisions based on projected profitablility, the market, etc. etc.

I don't think they'll make more money by releasing it concurrently with the anniversary.



Instead, I think (and hope) we'll see an anniversary product or products. Maybe a D&D retrospective (history of, quotes from designers, that sort of thing). Maybe also a "crunch through the ages" to complement that book, discussing different editions, offering conversion tools and strategies, including perhaps a module or mini module from each edition, or if 5e goes modular, perhaps the same module played with various "mods" and discussion of which edition which mods make it feel like.

The reason I think the above is twofold. One, I don't think they'll put off 5e if they think it can reinvigorate their market. Two, and this is even MORE important...If, as in most edition cycles, sales start to slow about a year in, they can re-invigorate the 5e market with the 40 year anniversary especially with those two products I envisioned (they'd be like advertisements, but, if done well, advertisements I would buy).

I predict June 2013 for release of 5e. I also predict some sort of retrospective 40th anniversary product meant to honor d&d but also to showcase 5e to us grognards.



Hell, one last prediction. On the 40th anniversary of D&D they make the old edition products available again. This will be especially true if my two other predictions are correct ... and if 5e is modular enough to play older editions. That way 5e is released soon enough to not compete with older editions, but then a year later (once most people who are going to buy the core books and try the game have done so) they release the older edition stuff that is somehow all playable with various subsets of 5e mods.

It's about the only way I can see to recapture the splintered market, and would simultaneously garner them massive goodwill.

From a strategic market point of view, I would agree with most of this.

The latest WotC could take advantage of the D&D 40th anniversary buzz, would be in the 4th quarter of 2014. With Hasbro's fiscal year ending on December 26, this would mean the "anniversary D&D" stuff would have to be released prior to Black Friday for maximum impact (ie. before November 28, 2014). With such conditions, the first few "anniversary D&D" titles could be released at Gencon 2014 to maximize initial first sales from Gencon "impulse buying" and buzz.

If prior 5E splatbooks sales turn out to nosedive earlier than expected, in principle they could start releasing such "anniversary D&D" titles at DDXP 2014 (assuming it is in January or February 2014). Though there's always the risk of releasing stuff in January or February, where people may still be "tapped out" from previous Xmas shopping and paying down the credit card bills.

With all this being said, early->mid 2013 or late 2012 would be appear to be ideal for releasing 5E D&D, such that the sales of 2014 "anniversary D&D" titles will pick up the slack after the 5E splatbook sales have already tapered off sometime in 2014. (Though I don't know how practical it would be to release 5E at Gencon 2012 or before Black Friday 2012).

 

[Nikosandros]

If 5E books produce more sales than any potential new 4E book would, then of course it will help.

What many people don't seem to understand or want to think is true is that there are many of us who just buy games. And we don't care if they are completely new brands, or new editions of existing brands. Games are games. If there's a fifth iteration of the D&D brand out there, then sure, we'll pick it up, because it'd be fun and interesting to look at and potentially play. And it doesn't mean it's because we've "given up" on a previous edition... it just means that it's a NEW GAME to buy.

It's the same way that if there was a new Mutants & Masterminds book on the shelf, we'd pick it up. Or a new Cthulu. Or a new Shadowrun. Or the newest Warhammer ruleset. While some people would claim that "you're fracturing the fanbase!"... that's only a statement that has any weight if most/all of the RPG community actually only played one game at the expense of all others. And I for one do not believe that is the case. Many of us have room in our shelves for multiple games. And if a completely new edition is more interesting that another supplement to an existing game that we already own umpteen supplements for already... we'll most certainly buy it, because it'd be more fun and more interesting to read and play and the best reason to spend our money.

And if there are enough people like that... then those are people any company would be smart to cater to.

Yes, you described me perfectly.