Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral

[Hussar]

But, does "decay in the market" mean that D&D is doing poorly?

After all, moving from one market venue to another does not necessarily mean that a product is doing well or badly, just that it's changing venues. The DDI has, from an uninformed outsiders view, performed pretty well. I've seen subscription estimates from about 30k to well over 100K. That's a pretty healthy revenue stream for an RPG company.

While it sucks that we might see less and less D&D in some places, WOTC does seem to be pretty dedicated to supporting the FLGS - regular game days for three different systems now - Magic, D&D and Gamma World which has got to be helping FLGS' bottom lines.

I wonder if it's more that WOTC is trying to focus it's brick and mortar presence to specialty stores, while pushing a bit into the big name stores like Target with boxed sets aimed at totally new gamers all the while maintaining a baseline through it's online business model.

Totally, totally uninformed speculation on my part. Just spit balling that one for cogitation.

 

[DMZ2112]

WOTC does seem to be pretty dedicated to supporting the FLGS - regular game days for three different systems now - Magic, D&D and Gamma World which has got to be helping FLGS' bottom lines.

My contact with retailers on this subject has been mixed. From what I understand, Wizards expects retailers to write off product to use as prizes at their events, which is kind of obnoxious. While these events definitely bring players into the store, D&D and Gamma World events don't seem to mean the same guaranteed additional sales numbers that a Magic event does. Magic players won't leave without a few boosters, I guess, but D&D players don't seem to impulse buy sourcebooks they weren't going to buy anyway just because they're in the store.

Regardless, if you're of the school that all publicity is good, these events definitely increase retailer foot traffic. I started an LFR game at my FLGS two years ago and we could barely fill a table. Now they're running two and three tables and turning people away, and I hear Encounters is just as booked. And both events are still not as well attended as the Magic events at the store.

 

[Stormonu]

Can anyone point me to the DDXP announcement(s)? I may not buy them, but I'm always curious to find out what's coming out.

 

[Jhaelen]

If WotC keeps publishing 4E until 2020 and then conks out, are folks going to say, "See, Dancey was right. Death Spiral!"

Definitely. There's a reason Nostradamus is still popular.

It also reminds me of people insisting they don't sleep well on full moon nights. As it turns out, they extend 'full moon nights' to the time period three days before and after the actual night when the moon is full and have similar problems at and around new moon...

 

[shadzar]

2: Downsizing until overhead matches income; could involve some kind of out-license or spin off of the business - think BattleTech in its current incarnation.

Nearly two years later, none of these outcomes have happened. Everything ends sooner or later, but Dancey was predicting a sudden, destructive collapse. It ain't happened.

So what's the statute of limitations on FUD?

It has happened, recent products canceled and product list reduced.

Wasn't the D&D team split between RPG and other types of games? While internal, this could very easily be seen as a spin off of the business. The move from making just D&D as an RPG, but heavy focus on board games. Like 4 of them now?

Gamma World
Ravenloft
The A named one
Drizzt game

Sure seems like a spin off of the business to me if only internal. So much so that they had to turn the D&D team into two divisions.

 

[BryonD]

Wow, has it only been 2.5 years since 4e was released? ((Goes and checks)). Yeah. It sure feels longer. Maybe it's the endless grind of these kinds of threads that just makes it seem like 4e has been around for longer.

Do you recall telling me that this would all be over by the end of summer 2008 because everyone would finish their existing campaigns and move on to 4E?

The DDI has, from an uninformed outsiders view, performed pretty well. I've seen subscription estimates from about 30k to well over 100K. That's a pretty healthy revenue stream for an RPG company.

Pure finance, I agree that whatever number it is, DDI is doing well. And I am all for market capitalism, so go WotC, do whatever makes the biggest cash bang.

But I've never seen evidence of 100K. I've seen 50K+ numbers, with distinct uncertainty if that is current total or running count of people who ever were subscribers. And I know a lot of people have dropped.

But, whatever, I still agree it is making a nice solid cash flow. So let's agree to that, and for purposes here assume 100K is the number of current subscribers.

So, as a gamer, HOLY CRAP, D&D has collapsed. 100K? That's it?

Obviously I don't see that as a decent true reading of how the game is doing. But, in terms of popularity, DDI has nothing to offer as evidence that 4E is particularly popular. And as much as I support WotC's right to pursue maximum profit, as a gamer what I actually, personally, care about is popularity. I want fan base.

And, going back to cash flow, it certainly forces one to wonder just what the subscriber base would be if DDI were hitched to a really popular game.

 

[carmachu]

I can only offer that you should listen to their answer from DDXP. I'm not going to repeat it all. As for the minis, the manufacturer from China raised the prices on plastics exponentially, thus making it inequitable to continue the line. Making minis just to make them, is a stupid business prospect. I understand it's easier to just hate what a company is doing, rather than seek the answers. But, there is so much more involved than many want to acknowledge. It's easier to attack The Man. People need a villain, I guess.

I can tell you that, after listeningto Games Workshop's logic and reasoning that that logic they threw out there is just an excuse, not the reason.

They have a game that bsically REQUIRES you to use minis- movemnet, powers in squares, etc....and now they dont have the miniatures.

I understand its easier to offer excuses for things and buy the company line then it is to actually look at underlying causes. Its easier to just accept what someone says then actually do some looking around.

 

[Hussar]

Umm, BryonD, if 100k subscribers is true (and I agree, it's probably about half that) you realize that's twice what Paizo had for subscriptions for Dungeon and Dragon combined? And Paizo was considered to be a success.

I think people wildly overestimate how many books and whatnot RPG companies sell. Beyond the core 3, I'd be absolutely shocked if any single title sold more than about 50 k copies. With the DDI, they're getting that equivalent every month.

50k subscribers is probably about as healthy of a cash stream any producer of D&D has had for many, many years.

 

[Hussar]

I can tell you that, after listeningto Games Workshop's logic and reasoning that that logic they threw out there is just an excuse, not the reason.

They have a game that bsically REQUIRES you to use minis- movemnet, powers in squares, etc....and now they dont have the miniatures.

I understand its easier to offer excuses for things and buy the company line then it is to actually look at underlying causes. Its easier to just accept what someone says then actually do some looking around.

Umm, excuse me if I'm wrong here, but, isn't WOTC still producing some miniatures? And, again, correct me if I'm wrong, but, just because they're not producing their minis themselves, doesn't really mean anything. I mean, D&D has long used miniatures (although not to the extent 4e and 3e do) and, for the most part, it's been other companies that supply those miniatures.

Is there really a shortage of minis on the market?

 

[BryonD]

Umm, BryonD, if 100k subscribers is true (and I agree, it's probably about half that) you realize that's twice what Paizo had for subscriptions for Dungeon and Dragon combined? And Paizo was considered to be a success.

OK. I honestly DON'T know that, but I'm willing to accept it.

I don't think the subscription base to the old magazines has anything to do with the conversation.

I think people wildly overestimate how many books and whatnot RPG companies sell. Beyond the core 3, I'd be absolutely shocked if any single title sold more than about 50 k copies. With the DDI, they're getting that equivalent every month.

50k subscribers is probably about as healthy of a cash stream any producer of D&D has had for many, many years.

Maybe, maybe not, but you are missing the point about player base.

Not to mention the lack of equivalence between one month of subscription and one unit of one single book, but this significant distinction is still pretty trivial to the main point.

DDI makes a lot of money.
4E lost a lot of D&D fan base.
These statements are not remotely incompatible.