Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral

[WizarDru]

But, then again, simply pointing out clear mistakes is much easier to do than having a strong path forward.

I think the problem is identifying what qualifies as a 'clear mistake'.

In 2000, WotC laid off 100 employees. In 2002, they did it again. In 2005 and 2008, they also had smaller layoffs. If we were to use that information as an indicator, one could assume that 2000-2002 were TERRIBLE years. But those were the 'boom years' of 3E. WotC was selling PHBs like hotcakes and the market was strong. Many laid-off employees went on to success as contractors or with their own companies (forming Green Ronin, Ptolus, Paizo and more). WotC continued on their merry, successful way. People were actually expecting lay-offs this year because they've laid off employees both years of the last two times they've released a new edition.

I'm not saying they haven't made or mistakes or aren't having problems now. I don't know. As is usual with these discussions, we have no data other than conjecture to know, effectively. When the magazines were given to Paizo...it was assumed that they had made a mistake, that they would fail. Instead, we got the best run of the magazines since the 80s. When they cancelled the magazines in favor of DDI, it was assumed that they had made a mistake, that they would fail. Instead we see DDI subscriptions more and more becoming the focus of WotC's efforts.

I just don't envision the kind of death-spiral that I think Ryan was suggesting actually happening. I don't think the DDXP announcements qualify for anything other than a tacit admission that they need to change their publishing model. I suspect "Wrath of Ashardalon" and "D&D: Gamma World" are test cases for one new strategy and the DDI changes are another. Only time will tell if it proves fruitful.

 

[BryonD]

I certainly should qualify that I don't endorse the "death spiral".

I think things are better now than they were in the darkest of the 2E days. I think that a new game could turn things around over night. Not that I think now is the time for that, but a death spiral indicates that the time will never come.

And, no insensitivity to people's lives intended, I'm not looking at staff levels as the barometer, but just at the overall level of popularity.


Lastly, it probably would have been more fitting to say "clear results of mistakes" rather than indicate the individual mistakes are easy to point at.

 

[Umbran]

And, no insensitivity to people's lives intended, I'm not looking at staff levels as the barometer, but just at the overall level of popularity.

Maybe this is buried deep in the bowels of the thread...

But, if you are going to look at staffing levels, you cannot just look at layoffs. That's only the outflow. You need to look also at hires of full-time and contract employees.

Anyone have that information? If not, then the layoffs are a pretty weak measure.

 

[Maggan]

No one EVER claimed that buying those magazines took away from people buying the game itself. This EXACT argument is now being made regarding DDI. DDI replaces buying books. The magazines were nothing remotely similar to that.

Is "the game" the same as "the books", though? Isn't that the rub of all this speculation.

What is "the game"? And are people buying "the game" in sufficient quantities to make for a large fan base?

To me, the "D&D4e game" consists of several different parts, of which I have bought books and DDI access (which I dropped due to having a break from running 4e).

I am one of those for whom the access to DDI meant that I didn't buy as many books as I probably would have done had DDI not been available and loaded with all content, but I still feel that I have bought "the game" even though I haven't bought the books or the essentials line (yet).

I'm looking to picking up Castle Ravenloft, the board game and maybe Wrath of Ashardalon. I don't really know much about them, but have somehow made the connection "Castle Ravenloft the board game is part of the D&D4e game". I intend to play it, and use the pieces in my upcoming D&D4e games.

Basicallt, for me "the game" is bigger than "the books", and includes the books, the DDI and even the board games. So this year D&D will be very interesting to follow.

Cheers!

/M

 

[BryonD]

Is "the game" the same as "the books", though? Isn't that the rub of all this speculation.

What is "the game"? And are people buying "the game" in sufficient quantities to make for a large fan base?

To me, the "D&D4e game" consists of several different parts, of which I have bought books and DDI access (which I dropped due to having a break from running 4e).

I'm not clear where we are disagreeing. I specifically said in the part you quoted: "DDI replaces buying books."

For 4E, yes DDI and books are both valid parts. I've never claimed differently.

But I don't at all agree that the same thing could be said for 3E and Dungeon/Dragon. That is the difference.

 

[BryonD]

and even the board games.

I do, very much, disagree with that part.

Big thumbs up on synergy into other markets and supporting the overall brand. But I'm interested in the RPG. Novels, comics, board games, etc..., as cool as they may be, are not part of "the (role playing) game".

 

[Maggan]

I'm not clear where we are disagreeing. I specifically said in the part you quoted: "DDI replaces buying books.

To me it seems as of the overall discussion is book centric, that it "the game" is often considered to be "the books", and as long as the books don't sell, the game doesn't sell.

I might have gotten too much caught up in the semantics though. Wouldn't be the first time.

I do, very much, disagree with that part.

Big thumbs up on synergy into other markets and supporting the overall brand. But I'm interested in the RPG. Novels, comics, board games, etc..., as cool as they may be, are not part of "the (role playing) game".

Yeah, I know I might be in a minority of one with that one.

EDIT: come to think of it, Games Workshop says they are in the "Warhammer hobby" business as opposed to the gaming hobby. Maybe that's what WotC are aiming for with D&D, creating a "D&D hobby" that is not intrinsically a part of what we traditionally considers the rpg hobby?

Cheers!

/M

 

[Nagol]

<snip>

EDIT: come to think of it, Games Workshop says they are in the "Warhammer hobby" business as opposed to the gaming hobby. Maybe that's what WotC are aiming for with D&D, creating a "D&D hobby" that is not intrinsically a part of what we traditionally considers the rpg hobby?

Cheers!

/M

That's effectively the same realisation Marvel came to a few years ago -- the primary value of their assets wasn't found in their inventory of the comic books and the equipment to make the same, but rather in the developed intellectual property that could be expressed in all sorts of media.

Too bad WotC turned away from the creation and nurturing of distinctive intellectual property (adventure paths, worlds, campaign sets, and other areas of shared community expierience) to focus on crunch. The fuff is much easier to repurpose across media.

 

[BryonD]

To me it seems as of the overall discussion is book centric, that it "the game" is often considered to be "the books", and as long as the books don't sell, the game doesn't sell.

I might have gotten too much caught up in the semantics though. Wouldn't be the first time.

Maybe the larger discussion is. But the part you quoted me on was very much about DDI and Books being separate media for the same thing.

I agree that DDI can readily offset losses in book sales. But, my position is that if we use DDI subscription numbers and claim that is the replacement, then the total number of people playing D&D has plummeted.

Yeah, I know I might be in a minority of one with that one.

EDIT: come to think of it, Games Workshop says they are in the "Warhammer hobby" business as opposed to the gaming hobby. Maybe that's what WotC are aiming for with D&D, creating a "D&D hobby" that is not intrinsically a part of what we traditionally considers the rpg hobby?

Cheers!

/M

Fair enough. But that is a new hobby that isn't what has been assumed to date. And I'd argue there is no safe assumption it will be anytime soon.

But if it happens, good for them. Just assume my comments specifically mean the RPG when I say D&D.

 

[HRSegovia]

You obviously don't work in a progressive, successful business then. Good businesses are always changing, always developing, always working to expand. The "current formula" regardless of success is never good enough. The goal is always to grow and expand your market.

Exactly true. A flop or failure does not mean the business is at its end.

Remember New Coke and Coca-Cola Classic? Everyone thought it was the end of Coca-Cola and it was a last ditch effort to steal Pepsi drinkers because it tasted like Pepsi. They dropped the line and chugged along. Even after this terrible recession in which we lost some MAJOR companies (Like Chrysler R.I.P.) Coca-Cola is still with us. However there's always the conspiracy theorists, know-it-alls, doomsayers and naysayers that will insist big change means big trouble.

I can't tell you if 4e will follow the path new coke. I like it. But if it does, it won't be the end of D&D.