Ryan Dancey speaks - the Most Successful Year for Fantasy RPGaming ever. However...

[AFGNCAAP]

I think a lot of the major-name TRPGs will stick around, though unfortunately, I'm not so sure about some of the smaller ones--IMHO, I think the big-name TRPG brands, along with online RPGs, may prove to be tough competition.

I think TRPGs will stick around about as long as CCGs and collectible mini games do, mainly because they all require some degree of (face-to-face) social interaction to play. Unless the online RPGs really diversify to cover various tastes for various players (sorta akin to D&D/White Wolf/Palladium/GURPS divisions/preferences), I think TRPGs still will be able to draw players to the table because they provide another option; another choice.

Frankly, 1 of the BIG things that keep me away from online RPGs like the plague is cost. I've suffered enough pains in the wallet with comic addictions--er, subscriptions, & I don't relish taking on that pain again through other means, whether it's CCGs, collectible minis, or online RPGs (On top of that, my gaming prime days, when I could have been lured to online play, coincided with the birth of Ultima Online, & all the MMORPG nightmares which spawned from it). Tech upgrade is another pain (since many of the new, hot games tend to utilize what's out there for tech, so a least of couple of grand is stacked on the monthly fees; not to mention costs for expansions, either).

Now, Guild Wars has a neat idea--just buy the game, then play for free. No monthly cost. I think that this will prove to be more attractive to players, esp. if the economy worsens & players' disposible income decreases. Or games like Neverwinter Nights & Freedom Force--capable of online play and a full-blown solo RPG. I think TRPGs may be threatened a bit more if play-for-free online RPGs becomes the standard.

 

[Byrons_Ghost]

Shrug.

This all seems like so much unecessary drama.

TRPGs have never been very popular and never will be. The very things that make them a unique pastime (utter freedom of creativity, endless expandability, easily improvised) make them difficult for many folks to enjoy -- they require a lot of reading, a lot of weighing options and a lot of spontaneity, which don't always add up to a fun time for plenty of people. MMORPGs place less of these requirements on players, but also offer less of those virtues.

This is basically how I see things. Comparing TRPGs to MMORPGs is pretty much pointless. And not just because each differs in play style. I think there's no question that video games are mainstream, while TRPGs are a niche hobby. The mainstream product is always going to win out in the numbers game, even if it does something similar to the niche hobby. Expecting D&D to be able to compete with World of Warcraft is like asking why GTA has more players than Dogtown (a fine game, to be sure).

My theory is that there isn't as much crossover of TRPG and MMORPG players as people think. Of the massive numbers of people playing WoW (excluding multiple accounts, gold farmers, etc) I'm betting that the vast majority of them have no interest in playing D&D and probably never will. Computers and video games are ingrained into our culture at pretty much every level, so it's only natural that they're going to have several magnitudes more of players. Again, TRPGs are a niche hobby.

Being a niche hobby doesn't have to be a problem, though, as long as the members recognize what it is and keep realistic expectations. TRPGs won't be able to compete with MMORPGs by doing the same thing they do. Instead, they'll have to focus on things that MMORPGs can't (yet) provide- customized experiences, face-to-face social aspects, immersiveness and immediacy of play.

The RPG industry will probably become less "big business", this is true. Like Barsoom said, this is also occuring with books, music, and pretty much any creative form which once relied upon a specialized distribution process. Computers and the internet have made production and distribution attainable to everyone. Even more importantly, they've increased the reasons for doing so. Before, a small indie band who managed to get their record produced by a company could look forward to either small localized distribution, or widespread distribution to a general public that didn't what to hear what they were doing. But now that the band can market it themselves on the net, they can carve out a niche for themselves. There's bound to be someone out there who likes what they're doing, and that provides more feedback than they would've gotten otherwise. They're probably not making as much money, true. But it's unlikely that they would've made much the other way, either.

Anyhow, a lot of this goes into Web 2.0 stuff and Long Tail theories and other things which aren't important right now. The point is, TRPGs never even had a chance of getting the kinds of money and numbers that MMORPGs do, so they're going to have to accept the fact that they market to a smaller, more specialized group and develop accordingly.

 

[Remathilis]

I wonder how much this ties into the D&D Online model? Think about it...

Master Tools was supposed to have an online component (one that bogged down its primary function and turned it to the dogpile it is today) that allowed DMing over the net (like WebRPG, but D&D only). This was heralded at the "future" of D&D, but never saw fruition. (Nor do I think it will in this edition).

RPGA now has an extensive "online" component to scheduling games, recording PCs, and ordering modules.

Neverwinter Nights introduced the Aurora Toolset, which allowed (via DM client) people to "host" games, ranging from simple automated Dungeons to Persistant Worlds full of house-ruled hakpacks.

And, of course, D&D Online, which will jump on the WoW model of a constant world populated with people all days and nights.

Perhaps something between them all MIGHT be the future?

A format that allows you to create characters and transport them from PnP to Online (either in a persistant world or DM Client) and back would allow for the best of both worlds. 3.5 is already pretty CG friendly (compared to older editions) and will only get more streamlined.

I think its a viable model, once the kinks are ironed out...

 

[Wayside]

I think the corprate model will collapse. However the groups that continue will work off of the OGL and d20 SRD to create a pdf sub market. Print WILL go by the wayside.

That's right. All the printed material shall come to me.

 

[Endur]

The funny thing is that Mike Mearls and Ryan Dancey didn't mention the minis at all.

The D&D minis are the most important thing that WOTC came up with for the D&D brand in 2005.

 

[MerricB]

The funny thing is that Mike Mearls and Ryan Dancey didn't mention the minis at all.

The D&D minis are the most important thing that WOTC came up with for the D&D brand in 2005.

2003. The first set was released in September 2003.

Cheers!

 

[Ralts Bloodthorne]

2005 was the best year in the history of the fantasy roleplaying game concept. In 2005, 2.4 billion people paid more than $480,000,000,000,000 to buy gasoline, generating record sales for oil companies.. That figure is five hundred thousand million gajillion times the total revenue generated by the tabletop roleplaying game segment >of all companies, of all time, past, present, future, and in other dimensions, combined<.

The above is about as relative.

For RPG's to compete with CRPG's is like Schwinn competing with Intel.

They make different things, appeal to different audiences, require a different infrastructure, and are used in different ways.

Many posters here have gone over the differences between RPG's and CRPG's, so I won't bother listing them here.

All I want to know, is what's with all the "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!" posts and other crap we're seeing?

If your business has a record year for income, why are you complaining that a different industry made more?

Should I complain because Acme Shoelaces made more than I did last year?

Get a grip. Concentrate on THIS industry, and quit claiming that everything is the end of RPG's as we know it.

 

[Psychic Warrior]

The above is about as relative.

For RPG's to compete with CRPG's is like Schwinn competing with Intel.

They make different things, appeal to different audiences, require a different infrastructure, and are used in different ways.

Many posters here have gone over the differences between RPG's and CRPG's, so I won't bother listing them here.

All I want to know, is what's with all the "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!" posts and other crap we're seeing?

If your business has a record year for income, why are you complaining that a different industry made more?

Should I complain because Acme Shoelaces made more than I did last year?

Get a grip. Concentrate on THIS industry, and quit claiming that everything is the end of RPG's as we know it.

Preach it, my man! Preach it!

All I know is that none of the dozen and a half people I game with play MMORPGs anymore. Several got a little too into it and were in great dnager of losing a lot of friends. Fortunately that is all behind us and we are happily killing monsters and taking their stuff. Is the RPG industry doing well? Doing poorly? Is the CRPG idustry doing well? We don't know and, frankly, we don't care. We buy what we like and want and ignore what we don't.

 

[Steel_Wind]

WoW blocks that acquisition path - it is much more likely that a young, fantasy oriented, otherwise likely target customer will get diverted into WoW than that they'll pick up D&D or another TRPG. Cutting off the acquisition engine of D&D will kill the TRPG category as a viable business - even if millions of grognards continue to meet and play into their golden years.

This is the most important statement that has been made. We should all pay close attention to it - because it could well be true.

It has happened before. Magic:TG cut off that acquisition engine in 1994 and as churn took out older gamers - TSR fell. This was not an accident at the time. WotC killed TSR and then feasted on its remains.

But in all honesty? I have difficulty in feeling great sympathy for Hasbro. The entire concept of MMORPGs, from Ultima, to Everquest, to Lineage i and II , Dark Age of Camelot - Asheron's Call 1 and 2 and the other bit players - and now with WoW - ALL OF IT is essentially using the core concept of D&D and making it into a profit engine.

Where was TSR and later WotC during all of this? They dabbled with the original Neverwinter Nights at AOL (not the Bioware game - the original online version) and then let it slide.

It was as if they came home - found some guy boinking the wife - and decided to go to the living room and watch TV.

The reason they did this? Well...there really is no good reason for this at all. D&D Online should have been created years ago and should be on its third incarnation by now. WoW is reaping the harvest of the demand AD&D created for this type of adventure game product.

So - where is Hasbro? Why haven't they done anything until now?

I have my own views - but I would be interested in hearing from those professionals in the RPG field as to their opinion.

 

[Mark CMG]

Okay, sMilin'B! You, the Dance Man, and that Mearls character had me going that time for sure. Little tip from the master, though. When you have them set on the hook, let them work the slack and tire themself out. No need to force it.

From Mike Mearl's blog: http://www.livejournal.com/users/mearls/115593.html

Ryan Dancey:
2005 was the best year in the history of the fantasy roleplaying game concept. In 2005, 4 million people paid more than $480,000,000 to play World of Warcraft. That figure is five times the total revenue generated by the tabletop roleplaying game segment >of all companies, of all time, combined<.

The population of people trained to understand the value premise of sword & sorcery RPGs by D&D have found a medium which asserts a new fun/not-fun ratio far more balanced towards "fun" than tabletop RPGs and they have embraced it with gusto.

The core network of D&D players drew in an expanded community of friends, dates,

Heh, heh, heh. Dates! Yeah, like WE have time to interrupt our gaming for DATES! That's a good one, all right . . .