Wizards got their butts swatted after their OGL shenanigans last year and they know it. Remember that it was not the entire company driving the change, only a small faction of high-ups. The designers and other teams were against it. I think there would be too much internal pushback for the company to try and backpedal on last year's promises.
Promises which were, what, "this is not a new edition" and "ODD will be 5e compatible?"
It's just been called "Dungeons & Dragons" since 3rd ed, right? That was one easily labeled "3rd" since it came after the explicitly labeled "2nd Edition." 4th was a different, nigh-incompatible ruleset to the 3rd, making the "4th" label easy enough. Does "5th edition" appear anywhere on 5th edition WotC books (I don't know - I don't buy them)? The 5e Compatible logo is the only one I can think of, and that only appears on
non-WotC products.
So far, an "edition" is really a self-applied label from WotC. It's subjective. Really, WotC could call 5th edition "3.8" and not be incorrect...and with the "3" in there, it wouldn't be a completely new edition.
Would it be compatible? Again, unless there's an international standard of compatibility to which WotC is beholden, it's subjective. Were 3.0 and 3.5 compatible? Were they different editions? I used my Monstrous Manual at the same time as my Monster Manual. Does that make them compatible?
I don't see internal pushback as a problem. It's corporate. WotC will just fire and hire if it must.
I predict that the new 2024 rules will be released into the Creative Commons around time of the PHB release. The same will happen with each of the other 2 core books when they come out. While some may say that the new SRD should go live early so 3rd party companies can prepare and release compatible products sooner, I don't think that will happen. . .
This is a good call. But 2024 will have its own OGL, and everyone can keep their Creative Commons-5RD, so 5th ed will still be free-to-all. The "compatibility" will probably be that all the sacred cows are still stinking up the barn, but the cowbells and whistles are so different that it's basically pointless to try putting a 5th ed character in with a
6th One D&D character. Like the 3rd to 5th difference.
Come to think of it, since WotC insists that there's no new edition on the way, a third party is free to refer to its product as the 6th edition. Takers?