Your Kickstarter campaign is doomed

[mamba]

Yeah, there's been a growing number of theories cropping up over the last five years.

haven’t heard that, outside of fringe groups of science deniers, like anti-vaccers and so forth

Not really. Given the short about of time we have accurate temperature records (less than 200 years), there's only estimates at best.

yes really, we have pretty accurate ‘ideas’ for much longer than that. It does not take a human with a thermometer measuring the temperature at that time for this.

Not at all. Climate change is an established fact,

so is global warming

and has been for a generation; the cycle is measured in millenium, and thus is no real concern.

it used to not be one when it was a matter of natural cycles. The temperature increase over the last 50 years is much more rapid than the ones before

The problem with that is that nothing has time to adapt, hence the mass extinction bit

Global warming is a theory that is increasingly challenged, hence the retreat into 'climate change'.

increasingly challenged by people who directly benefit from us believing it is not real - and I don’t even think it is actually increasing

None of it is really of concern

yeah, because the hottest 10 years we ever measured all being in the last 20, with the last three or so being the hottest ever sure shows those global warming believers how wrong they are

The time to grow concerned is when port city real estate starts to drop. That is an indicator that will not be fudged.

by then it is much too late, as I said we are completely unequipped for this, and it shows in many ways. Coastal property prices being one of them.

Pretty sure we will see drops in select areas in my lifetime though, there’s only so many dams that can be built to mitigate it.

 

[doctorbadwolf]

I am not sure we come out of that downturn.

We are at the start of the next mass extinction event, and we are the ones causing it. Smart enough to affect the world at a scale never before imaginable, too dumb to not kill ourselves with that. Maybe mankind survives, I don't think civilization will. All the actions we have taken the last 50 or so years about it make one thing very clear: we are completely unequipped to handle something like this.

Oh well, the smart ape, a failed experiment of evolution, crocodiles did so much better.... with a little luck they are still around long after we are gone


I am more interested in the next 500 than the last 10000, I see us in decline already.


I am not talking about a larger timescale, I am talking about the next few hundred years. Also, something not having an impact on anyone I know can still be a very detrimental impact

I expect plenty of people I know to be impacted already however.

Nvm.

I had nothing nice to say in reply to this level of abject cynicism and defeatism, so I’ve deleted my reply.

 

[mamba]

I had nothing nice to say in reply to this level of abject cynicism and defeatism

I see no defeatism here, maybe a little cynicism (I consider it more clear eyed realism, but I can see how it can come across that way…), but given the last 10 years, I’d say that is more than justified.

I can tell you that I planted some trees this year, so I am not acting defeated. They are suitable for the next warmer climate zone however, which is what any gardener will recommend to you these days. Make of that what you will.

 

[Jd Smith1]

haven’t heard that, outside of fringe groups of science deniers, like anti-vaccers and so forth

Seriously? Are you keeping up with peer-reviewed papers?

yes really, we have pretty accurate ‘ideas’ for much longer than that. It does not take a human with a thermometer measuring the temperature at that time for this.

Not according to the scientific community.

so is global warming

Bless your heart.

it used to not be one when it was a matter of natural cycles. The temperature increase over the last 50 years is much more rapid than the ones before

The problem with that is that nothing has time to adapt, hence the mass extinction bit

50 years is 1.5 seconds in terms of climate cycles. And the temperature increase is neither consistent nor encompassing.

increasingly challenged by people who directly benefit from us believing it is not real - and I don’t even think it is actually increasing

BLess your heart.

yeah, because the hottest 10 years we ever measured all being in the last 20, with the last three or so being the hottest ever sure shows those global warming believers how wrong they are

Except that they were neither consistent nor uniform. And as noted, your benchmark for comparison is comedically small.

by then it is much too late, as I said we are completely unequipped for this, and it shows in many ways. Coastal property prices being one of them.

Pretty sure we will see drops in select areas in my lifetime though, there’s only so many dams that can be built to mitigate it.

Yeah, 'pretty sure' is a solid base for planning.

Anyway, time to get back to the thread.

 

[doctorbadwolf]

I see no defeatism here, maybe a little cynicism (I consider it more clear eyed realism, but I can see how it can come across that way…), but given the last 10 years, I’d say that is more than justified.

I can tell you that I planted some trees this year, so I am not acting defeated. They are suitable for the next warmer climate zone however, which is what any gardener will recommend to you these days. Make of that what you will.

Hey if that mindset motivates you that’s great.

Though, to be fair, I think nearly all cynics and pessimists see themselves as clear eyed realists, but they aren’t any more realistic than optimists.

It’s biases and turtles all the way down.

 

[mamba]

Hey if that mindset motivates you that’s great.

I think it has no impact on me. From my perspective I see the world as it is (who doesn’t think that…).

I have no expectation of me making a difference in the grand scheme of things, and you know the trajectory I see us on, but that doesn’t mean I cannot make it slightly better. That I have more bees and butterflies around now, because we planted some meadows in our yard a few years back, is a win too, however small.

Though, to be fair, I think nearly all cynics and pessimists see themselves as clear eyed realists, but they aren’t any more realistic than optimists.

yes, there a few people who do not think that of themselves, you included I assume. Only time will tell where we fall on this

 

[bedir than]

So, avoid Kickstarters with more than one of the OP's examples?

 

[doctorbadwolf]

I think it has no impact on me. From my perspective I see the world as it is (who doesn’t think that…).

I have no expectation of me making a difference in the grand scheme of things, and you know the trajectory I see us on, but that doesn’t mean I cannot make it slightly better. That I have more bees and butterflies around now, because we planted some meadows in our yard a few years back, is a win too, however small.

Sure, whereas I wouldn’t even bother with that if I viewed the future as you do. I don’t believe that meaning exists or anything matters in any greater sense, so all there is is other people. For me, “everything is heading toward the inevitable end and we won’t solve the big problems facing us because humanity sucks” makes a complete mockery of everything accomplished by every person in history, which I view in a negative ethical light, on top of believing that it’s a bit absurd and…dramatic? Like…okay the universe will end. So what? Show me how that changes anyone’s life right now. The world is burning? Yes, it is! So get mad about and start bullying politicians and sabotaging the rich.

yes, there a few people who do not think that of themselves, you included I assume.

Somewhat, for me. While I tend to lean toward seeing optimism as more realistic than pessimism, I am well aware of my own bias as an optimist.

Only time will tell where we fall on this

Sadly more time than any of us have, barring a cure for aging.

 

[Parmandur]

a complete mockery of everything accomplished by every person in history

Quite the opposite, recognizing the heroism of doomed efforts and emulating them us the ultimate praise.

 

[mamba]

Sure, whereas I wouldn’t even bother with that if I viewed the future as you do. I don’t believe that meaning exists or anything matters in any greater sense, so all there is is other people.

That is a weird take to me. I agree with the 'meaning does not exist' part in the sense that there is no outside purpose you have to fulfill / live up to. What matters and what holds meaning is up to you.

Other people are why we are in this mess, so by and large they get no sympathy from me. Obviously there are some individuals I care about, but mankind... not so much.

For me, “everything is heading toward the inevitable end and we won’t solve the big problems facing us because humanity sucks” makes a complete mockery of everything accomplished by every person in history,

Maybe it does, not sure what difference that makes with respect to the veracity of the fact however. Facts do not care about your feelings I am not prone to consider something to be true because I like the implications of it, I can see how this prevents you / others from even considering such a view however

Just because nothing lasts forever makes no difference to how I see the achievements of individual humans. Some were a net positive, others were not. That nothing anyone accomplished lasts forever is irrelevant. To me that is very much a religious view (eternal soul / reward / damnation) and deeply flawed.

which I view in a negative ethical light, on top of believing that it’s a bit absurd and…dramatic? Like…okay the universe will end. So what?

As I said, it is not about the heat death of the universe or even the end of our solar system, which will come much sooner, relatively speaking. I am looking at the next few hundred to a thousand years here.

I see no reason why I should be more concerned with events that are 500 years away than with ones 5 million years away, neither will affect me.

Show me how that changes anyone’s life right now.

it doesn't, I don't think I ever claimed it does.

Show me how mankind dying out in 500 years changes your life right now. As far as I can tell it changes no one's life today, we certainly do not behave like it does.

The world is burning? Yes, it is! So get mad about and start bullying politicians and sabotaging the rich.

As long as 40% are in complete denial of the situation and vote against their interests, I do not see anything changing (did I mention that going by the actions of the last 50 years, we are completely unequipped for a situation like this? ). I am certainly voting in favor of certain policies / goals, but it is not a fight that one person will win. As I said earlier, I am not expecting to make a difference in the grand scheme of things, but I toll away at the small things I do control.