Given cyclic initiative the chance for a TPK in situations described earlier is quite certain.
This almost sounds like you're suggesting that pcs can't beat a giant (as in the example from the cover of the PH) with the normal combat system. I guess if the discrepency between the giant's CR and the party's level is sufficient, it's highly likely, but even then, it's not certain, in my experience. I wonder if you're undervaluing bounded accuracy's effect on combat? Low level pcs can indeed fight quite high CR monsters and win, under the normal combat rules, with an unforgiving, no-fudging DM like me. I've run games where what are on paper 'impossible' fights were total victories for the pcs. I guess maybe I just have a lot of faith in the standard rules to handle most any standard combat situation.
However in heroic fiction there are times when the heroes succeed despite impossible odds.
Okay, and this is where I got the idea that you're talking about predetermining the outcome and making sure it comes out how you want. This is where my "slavish devotion to the desired outcome" comment came from (and again, I apologize that it came across as disparaging). If you've decided the pcs are going to win, why have a combat at all? ... which, I guess, is kind of the point you're making? (Or is it?)
The combat rules work well when the opposing parties are similarly matched within reasonable ranges. Heck that's why we have the encounter building guidelines! And the combat rules help us resolve the uncertainty in a "fair" fight.
I seriously suggest you get a group of tactically-savvy pcs who have characters that have worked together for a while that are good at teamwork and try throwing them at an encounter that seriously overmatches them. See how it goes. Do it outside of game continuity, just as an experiment. You might be surprised by the results. It's like the dragon in LMoP- on paper, it looks like an automatic TPK, but in play, many groups manage to win through.
I'm talking about unfair fights or "fights on the run" where there's a new enemy on every round as the party cuts their way through to their objective.
I guess the unfair fight thing is just something where I feel regular combat rules work fine. I've seen a death knight die to a party that was mostly about 6th level. I've seen a lich go down to a party that was mostly about 7th (granted, it was a large group).
Now, the fight on the run thing kind of makes sense to me, in that the normal combat rules aren't great for that kind of situation, but I still think they flex well enough to use. I don't know, I just favor sticking to the rules where possible, but I run a pretty hardcore sandbox style of game, with no adjustments made for pc levels or the like. In a story based game, I think the narrative combat stuff you're talking about makes more sense.
So let me rephrase it a bit and see if I have a little better idea now of what you are talking about. Here is basically what I'm getting - and please correct me if I have it wrong, because this is a fascinating and kind of baffling topic for me!
Instead of running a
combat per se, you are talking about running a
scene with combat in it.
To elaborate on the difference I'm seeing, if you run a combat, the point is to see how the combat turns out. If you run a scene with combat in it, the point is to get to the next scene, and the combat is just a trapping on the way to it, much like the description of the room might be when you're running the combat. And when I call it a 'trapping', I don't mean to belittle it; in a combat, often, the environment is as big of a player as the monsters and pcs. I'm just saying that the emphasis is on the desired scene rather than on the combat itself.
So in a narrative combat scene, the combat is secondary to the real objective- cut your way to the center of the enemy army, whatever it might be- which leads to the next scene- the actual combat against the enemy general or whatnot.
Does that sound about right?
I'm kind of basing this, again, on the example that Seramus posted; that's a great example of a scene where the combat is secondary to the real goal (stop the essence of night, which you simply can't do with combat).
And really you have an odd way of helping if you immediately dismiss and belittle the discussion!
Again, I apologize; that really wasn't my intent.